2020 · Week 8

Final

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Derek Carr

16·6

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

FirstEnergy Stadium · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 35mph

Closing spread

CLE -1

Total

48

Model margin

+3.5est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Raidersedge mapBrowns
  • +0.066EPA / play+0.091
  • 47.4%Success rate46.9%
  • +0.155EPA / dropback+0.193
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.2%
  • +2.18CPOE+2.55
  • 45.5%Third-down rate45.5%
  • 59.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
  • 2.49Points / drive2.32
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LV lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2018 · W4CLE @ OAK42–45RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE
2011 · W6CLE @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLV–CLE
LVQ1 15:00937Missed field goal0–0
CLEQ1 10:34627Turnover0–0
LVQ1 7:493-1Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:271465Field goal0–3
LVQ2 13:351558Field goal3–3
CLEQ2 5:1730Punt3–3
LVQ2 4:021051Field goal6–3
CLEQ3 15:001055Field goal6–6
LVQ3 8:471571Touchdown13–6
CLEQ4 14:53415Punt13–6
LVQ4 13:111366Field goal16–6
CLEQ4 4:241261Missed field goal16–6
LVQ4 1:54528End of half16–6

Box score

Individual performances

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Derek Carr15/2411110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs311294.20
Derek Carr6416.80
Devontae Booker5295.80
Jalen Richard166.00
Henry Ruggs III111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darren Waller56270
Hunter Renfrow44261
Jason Witten22210
Devontae Booker11170
Jalen Richard11120
Henry Ruggs III2480
Nelson Agholor0200
Foster Moreau0100
Josh Jacobs0100

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield12/2512200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kareem Hunt14664.70
Baker Mayfield6294.80
D'Ernest Johnson263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry411520
Harrison Bryant33250
David Njoku13190
Rashard Higgins13140
Kareem Hunt2370
D'Ernest Johnson1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.50