Closing spread
CLE -1
Total
48
Model margin
+3.5est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play+0.091
- 47.4%Success rate46.9%
- +0.155EPA / dropback+0.193
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.2%
- +2.18CPOE+2.55
- 45.5%Third-down rate45.5%
- 59.9%Red-zone TD rate71.8%
- 2.49Points / drive2.32
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LV lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 15/24 | 111 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 31 | 129 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 5 | 29 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Waller | 5 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 4 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Jalen Richard | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Henry Ruggs III | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 12/25 | 122 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kareem Hunt | 14 | 66 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 6 | 29 | 4.8 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 11 | 52 | 0 |
| Harrison Bryant | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Rashard Higgins | 1 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kareem Hunt | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.50