Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 28/49 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 10 | 45 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.