Closing spread
CLE -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutBenson MayowaDEKnee· DNP
- OutJustin EllisDTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableJamize OlawaleRBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableJustin TuckDEKnee· Full
Browns
- OutK'Waun WilliamsCBConcussion· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutRobert TurbinRBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutScott SolomonLBAnkle· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableDesmond BryantDEShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableJustin GilbertCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableBarkevious MingoLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJohnny ManzielQBright Elbow· Full
- ProbableJosh McCownQBConcussion· Full
- ProbableMitchell SchwartzTThumb· Full
Win probability
- Browns
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. CLE are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–CLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 82 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 8:33 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:41 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q1 2:43 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 14:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–0 |
| CLE | Q2 13:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 12:13 | 13 | 85 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| CLE | Q2 6:46 | 12 | 79 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:44 | 5 | 70 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| CLE | Q2 0:18 | 2 | 6 | End of half | 17–3 |
| CLE | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 17–3 |
| LV | Q3 13:24 | 9 | 86 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| CLE | Q3 9:25 | 14 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| LV | Q3 3:32 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 27–10 |
| CLE | Q4 14:30 | 9 | 52 | Field goal | 27–13 |
| LV | Q4 10:57 | 5 | 33 | Turnover | 27–13 |
| CLE | Q4 8:26 | 6 | 39 | Touchdown | 27–20 |
| LV | Q4 6:28 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 27–20 |
| LV | Q4 4:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 27–20 |
| CLE | Q4 2:26 | 11 | 63 | Turnover | 27–20 |
| LV | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 27–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh McCown | 28/49 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Crowell | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gary Barnidge | 6 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 7 | 96 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 4 | 10 | 45 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 2 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Marlon Moore | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Shaun Draughn | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.1%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.