2018 · Week 4

Final / OT

Browns

Cleveland

QB Baker Mayfield

42·45

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

OAK -2.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+1.6est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

OAK lead 8–7 since 1999

Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W12CLE @ LV24–10CLE
2024 · W4CLE @ LV16–20RAIDERS
2021 · W15LV @ CLE16–14RAIDERS
2020 · W8LV @ CLE16–6RAIDERS
2015 · W3OAK @ CLE27–20RAIDERS
2014 · W8OAK @ CLE13–23CLE
2012 · W13CLE @ OAK20–17CLE
2011 · W6CLE @ OAK17–24RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–OAK
LVQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
CLEQ1 13:1632Punt0–0
LVQ1 12:1736Punt0–0
CLEQ1 10:4622Opp touchdown0–7
CLEQ1 10:011672Field goal3–7
LVQ1 2:00846Missed field goal9–7
CLEQ2 12:46163Touchdown9–7
LVQ2 12:3537Punt9–7
CLEQ2 10:58470Touchdown17–7
LVQ2 9:00875Touchdown17–14
CLEQ2 4:30618Punt17–14
LVQ2 1:53647Turnover17–14
CLEQ2 0:2300End of half17–14
CLEQ3 15:001065Field goal20–14
LVQ3 9:22324Turnover20–14
CLEQ3 8:1737Touchdown28–14
LVQ3 7:26515Punt28–14
CLEQ3 5:501-4Turnover28–14
LVQ3 5:4537Touchdown28–21
CLEQ3 5:3444Punt28–21
LVQ3 4:0938Punt28–21
CLEQ3 2:5531Punt28–21
LVQ3 1:2110Field goal28–21
LVQ3 1:15152Field goal28–21
LVQ3 0:2400Field goal28–21
LVQ3 0:0412Field goal28–21
LVQ3 0:002-1Field goal28–24
CLEQ4 14:1428Turnover28–24
LVQ4 13:26220Touchdown28–31
CLEQ4 12:4630Punt28–31
LVQ4 12:1233Field goal28–34
CLEQ4 10:46777Touchdown35–34
LVQ4 8:07414Punt35–34
CLEQ4 5:46363Touchdown42–34
LVQ4 4:20866Turnover on downs42–34
CLEQ4 1:5139Punt42–34
LVQ4 1:28653Touchdown42–42
CLEQ4 0:30326Turnover42–42
LVQ4 0:0700End of half42–42
LVOT643Missed field goal42–42
CLEOT35Punt42–42
LVOT1070Field goal42–45

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield21/4129522

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Nick Chubb310535.02
Carlos Hyde22823.71
Duke Johnson2115.50
Baker Mayfield4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rashard Higgins45610
Antonio Callaway39540
David Njoku57520
Darren Fells12491
Duke Johnson46450
Jarvis Landry410341
Orson Charles0100
Carlos Hyde0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.4%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.61

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.