Closing spread
OAK -2.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 38.6 points. OAK are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 21/41 | 295 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Chubb | 3 | 105 | 35.0 | 2 |
| Carlos Hyde | 22 | 82 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Baker Mayfield | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Higgins | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Antonio Callaway | 3 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| David Njoku | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 49 | 1 |
| Duke Johnson | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 10 | 34 | 1 |
| Orson Charles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.4%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.61
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.