2005 · Week 15 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 44°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
36
Model margin
+5.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.023EPA / play+0.014
- 40.5%Success rate41.3%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.083
- 7.7%Explosive rate8.5%
- 41.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.55Points / drive1.80
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.049EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 39–16 since 1999
DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 10:53 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 8:44 | 10 | 45 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q1 1:59 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 0:39 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| WAS | Q2 13:35 | 8 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 9:40 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 6:18 | 8 | 40 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 3:01 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| WAS | Q2 1:40 | 2 | 34 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| DAL | Q2 1:25 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| WAS | Q2 0:29 | 2 | 38 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| DAL | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 0–28 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -19 | Turnover | 0–28 |
| WAS | Q3 13:28 | 6 | 21 | Touchdown | 0–35 |
| DAL | Q3 10:15 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–35 |
| WAS | Q3 8:52 | 4 | 16 | Punt | 0–35 |
| DAL | Q3 5:58 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 0–35 |
| WAS | Q3 2:52 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–35 |
| DAL | Q3 1:18 | 8 | 66 | Touchdown | 7–35 |
| WAS | Q4 12:10 | 7 | 25 | Turnover | 7–35 |
| DAL | Q4 7:55 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–35 |
| WAS | Q4 6:25 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–35 |
| DAL | Q4 2:15 | 10 | 39 | Turnover | 7–35 |
| WAS | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 16/29 | 153 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 12 | 79 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 10 | 30 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Bledsoe | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 12/20 | 163 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 112 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 1 |
| Rock Cartwright | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.00