Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.040
- 40.1%Success rate40.9%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.086
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 28/42 | 327 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 6/13 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 8/16 | 76 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59