Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
35.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.124EPA / play-0.040
- 40.1%Success rate40.9%
- -0.093EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.086
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.0%
- 35.3%Third-down rate35.3%
- 39.0%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.30Points / drive1.48
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.002EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 13:35 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:45 | 13 | 63 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 4:08 | 13 | 54 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 12:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 11:28 | 2 | 8 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 10:42 | 4 | 17 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 8:46 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:22 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 3:57 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:18 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| NYJ | Q2 0:24 | 3 | 23 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 13:01 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–10 |
| MIA | Q3 10:24 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 16–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 8:58 | 1 | 60 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| MIA | Q3 8:49 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 7:20 | 9 | 42 | Punt | 17–10 |
| MIA | Q3 2:12 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 17–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 0:45 | 1 | 8 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| MIA | Q3 0:32 | 6 | 61 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 17–17 |
| MIA | Q4 12:14 | 3 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:55 | 12 | 47 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| MIA | Q4 4:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–24 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:53 | 12 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 20–24 |
| MIA | Q4 0:48 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Bollinger | 28/42 | 327 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Houston | 15 | 84 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Brooks Bollinger | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sage Rosenfels | 6/13 | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 8/16 | 76 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 14 | 70 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Ronnie Brown | 12 | 45 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.59