Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
51
Model margin
+4.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 8–5 since 1999
Meetings average 46 points. IND are 4-8-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 0–0 |
| IND | Q1 12:16 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:03 | 5 | 42 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 9:13 | 2 | -3 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| IND | Q1 8:18 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:16 | 8 | 84 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| IND | Q1 1:56 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 0:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| IND | Q2 14:04 | 16 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q2 8:33 | 18 | 86 | Field goal | 13–0 |
| IND | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 19 | Missed field goal | 13–0 |
| IND | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 13–0 |
| LAC | Q3 13:49 | 10 | 35 | Field goal | 16–0 |
| IND | Q3 9:30 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 16–3 |
| LAC | Q3 6:41 | 4 | 11 | Turnover | 16–3 |
| IND | Q3 4:34 | 2 | 26 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| LAC | Q3 3:42 | 4 | -6 | Turnover | 16–10 |
| IND | Q3 1:27 | 3 | 4 | Touchdown | 16–17 |
| LAC | Q3 0:40 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 16–17 |
| IND | Q4 13:55 | 9 | 24 | Punt | 16–17 |
| LAC | Q4 10:09 | 6 | 61 | Field goal | 19–17 |
| IND | Q4 6:41 | 0 | 0 | Turnover | 19–17 |
| LAC | Q4 6:36 | 2 | 5 | Turnover | 19–17 |
| IND | Q4 5:54 | 10 | 59 | Punt | 19–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:28 | 2 | 80 | Touchdown | 26–17 |
| IND | Q4 2:09 | 4 | 47 | Turnover | 26–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 26–17 |
| IND | Q4 0:21 | 2 | 32 | End of half | 26–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/45 | 336 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 13 | 25 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.91
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.47
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.