Closing spread
NO -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.102EPA / play-0.096
- 38.8%Success rate41.1%
- -0.109EPA / dropback-0.030
- -0.090EPA / rush-0.205
- 5.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- 38.8%Third-down rate38.7%
- 54.3%Red-zone TD rate42.9%
- 1.20Points / drive1.11
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.5%
- -0.020EPA / play allowed+0.032
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 81 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 5:56 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q1 3:47 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 1:39 | 4 | 35 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 14:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q2 12:42 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DET | Q2 10:46 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q2 7:45 | 4 | 5 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q2 5:45 | 12 | 62 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| DET | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 7–3 |
| NO | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–3 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| DET | Q3 9:16 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–6 |
| NO | Q3 7:27 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| DET | Q3 5:49 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–9 |
| NO | Q3 3:16 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 7–9 |
| DET | Q4 14:01 | 10 | 94 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| NO | Q4 7:14 | 17 | 65 | Field goal | 10–12 |
| DET | Q4 1:52 | 9 | 65 | Field goal | 13–12 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Harrington | 17/30 | 210 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artose Pinner | 20 | 57 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Shawn Bryson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Bouman | 21/38 | 233 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antowain Smith | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Todd Bouman | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Stecker | 7 | 5 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Donte' Stallworth | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.43
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-2.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.13