2015 · Week 15

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

35·27

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -2.5

Total

52

Model margin

+1.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.080
  • 44.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.045EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.078
  • 7.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.09CPOE+2.78
  • 38.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 66.7%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.90Points / drive2.09
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
NOQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:2732Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:1432Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:25636Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 7:511256Field goal7–3
DETQ1 1:06465Touchdown14–3
NOQ2 14:12719Punt14–3
DETQ2 11:051179Touchdown21–3
NOQ2 4:271376End of half21–3
DETQ3 15:00678Touchdown28–3
NOQ3 11:503-1Punt28–3
DETQ3 10:1348Punt28–3
NOQ3 7:31569Touchdown28–10
DETQ3 5:03518Punt28–10
NOQ3 1:20754Field goal28–13
DETQ4 13:0114Turnover28–13
NOQ4 12:47538Touchdown28–20
DETQ4 10:06976Touchdown35–20
NOQ4 5:241763Touchdown35–27
DETQ4 1:55235Missed field goal35–27
NOQ4 0:09218End of half35–27

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/2525430

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah9778.61
Joique Bell8718.91
Theo Riddick231.50
Matthew Stafford4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron45790
Golden Tate66452
Joique Bell23300
Theo Riddick22270
T.J. Jones22220
Calvin Johnson11190
Ameer Abdullah22120
Lance Moore11100
Timothy Wright0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees34/5234130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower13544.20
Drew Brees11111.00
C.J. Spiller221.00
Kendall Hunter122.00
Michael Hoomanawanui100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks10131241
Willie Snead1012760
Benjamin Watson612491
Marques Colston24391
Tim Hightower34310
C.J. Spiller25160
Brandon Coleman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.57