Closing spread
NO -2.5
Total
52
Model margin
+1.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.080
- 44.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.045EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.078
- 7.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.09CPOE+2.78
- 38.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 66.7%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.90Points / drive2.09
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/25 | 254 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 9 | 77 | 8.6 | 1 |
| Joique Bell | 8 | 71 | 8.9 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 5 | 79 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 6 | 6 | 45 | 2 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Timothy Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/52 | 341 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Kendall Hunter | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 10 | 13 | 124 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 10 | 12 | 76 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 12 | 49 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.57