Closing spread
DET -4
Total
47.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.058EPA / play-0.015
- 45.9%Success rate42.2%
- +0.110EPA / dropback+0.052
- -0.014EPA / rush-0.113
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.34CPOE+1.94
- 42.4%Third-down rate39.4%
- 65.2%Red-zone TD rate57.6%
- 2.29Points / drive1.82
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/25 | 213 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 8 | 60 | 7.5 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 18 | 56 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta | 9 | 9 | 140 | 1 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 2 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Donovan Peoples-Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek Carr | 17/22 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
| Jameis Winston | 2/5 | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 13 | 59 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Alvin Kamara | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Derek Carr | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 5 | 8 | 119 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| A.T. Perry | 1 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Foster Moreau | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Lynn Bowden | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Juwan Johnson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.31%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.38