Closing spread
DET -1.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
DET perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Lions
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.067EPA / play-0.006
- 47.9%Success rate41.8%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.074
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
- +3.60CPOE-4.76
- 48.2%Third-down rate38.3%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 2.11Points / drive1.79
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 28/45 | 342 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 16 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 10 | 111 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 5 | 103 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 6 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 27/40 | 299 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joique Bell | 18 | 48 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 10 | 13 | 154 | 1 |
| Corey Fuller | 3 | 5 | 44 | 1 |
| Jeremy Ross | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Jordan Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.23