2014 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

23·24

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -1.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

DET perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapLions
  • +0.067EPA / play-0.006
  • 47.9%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.074
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.159
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +3.60CPOE-4.76
  • 48.2%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 2.11Points / drive1.79
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DET
DETQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:1936Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:52633Punt0–0
NOQ1 7:591454Punt0–0
DETQ1 1:2433Turnover0–0
NOQ1 0:12523Touchdown7–0
DETQ2 13:56725Punt7–0
NOQ2 9:50434Turnover7–0
DETQ2 7:47613Field goal7–3
NOQ2 5:2932Punt7–3
DETQ2 4:03718Punt7–3
NOQ2 1:32675Field goal10–3
NOQ3 15:00480Touchdown17–3
DETQ3 13:421280Touchdown17–10
NOQ3 6:1945Punt17–10
DETQ3 4:3136Punt17–10
NOQ3 3:361169Field goal20–10
DETQ4 13:331052Turnover20–10
NOQ4 8:43536Field goal23–10
DETQ4 5:24695Touchdown23–17
NOQ4 3:3854Turnover23–17
DETQ4 3:10711Touchdown23–24
NOQ4 1:48820Turnover on downs23–24
DETQ4 0:2100End of half23–24

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees28/4534221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson3268.70
Mark Ingram10161.60
Drew Brees11313.00
Pierre Thomas6132.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston6101110
Kenny Stills551031
Travaris Cadet69510
Brandin Cooks23230
Pierre Thomas44170
Mark Ingram23130
Josh Hill1180
Benjamin Watson1330
Robert Meachem0300
Jimmy Graham0200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford27/4029922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joique Bell18482.71
Reggie Bush4102.50
Matthew Stafford210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate10131541
Corey Fuller35441
Jeremy Ross34320
Brandon Pettigrew46280
Reggie Bush56220
Joique Bell25190
Jordan Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.30
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.23