2016 · Week 13

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

28·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

53

Model margin

+2.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.100
  • 45.4%Success rate48.2%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.187EPA / rush-0.012
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.07CPOE+4.38
  • 42.7%Third-down rate49.0%
  • 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.05Points / drive2.39
  • 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
NOQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DETQ1 13:23844Field goal3–0
NOQ1 8:14422Punt3–0
DETQ1 5:281197Touchdown10–0
NOQ2 13:03615Punt10–0
DETQ2 10:4236Punt10–0
NOQ2 8:50631Field goal10–3
DETQ2 5:051256Field goal13–3
NOQ2 0:56660Field goal13–6
DETQ3 15:001058Field goal16–6
NOQ3 8:57825Turnover16–6
DETQ3 6:151045Field goal19–6
NOQ3 1:42775Touchdown19–13
DETQ4 13:32578Touchdown25–13
NOQ4 11:38510Punt25–13
DETQ4 10:16526Field goal28–13
NOQ4 7:10532Turnover28–13
DETQ4 5:23512Punt28–13
NOQ4 2:421190Turnover28–13

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford30/4234120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zach Zenner9404.40
Matthew Stafford3227.30
Dwayne Washington7213.00
Theo Riddick420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate8101451
T.J. Jones34490
Anquan Boldin46400
Eric Ebron46380
Andre Roberts47350
Dwayne Washington22190
Theo Riddick56151

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees31/4432603

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram7375.30
Tim Hightower252.50
Brandin Cooks144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Coby Fleener57860
Brandin Cooks79730
Travaris Cadet56530
Michael Thomas45420
Willie Snead26380
Mark Ingram55160
Tim Hightower1140
Josh Hill1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

4.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.16