Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
53
Model margin
+2.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.100
- 45.4%Success rate48.2%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.187EPA / rush-0.012
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.07CPOE+4.38
- 42.7%Third-down rate49.0%
- 53.3%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.05Points / drive2.39
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 30/42 | 341 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Zenner | 9 | 40 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 8 | 10 | 145 | 1 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Eric Ebron | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Dwayne Washington | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 6 | 15 | 1 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 31/44 | 326 | 0 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 7 | 37 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Fleener | 5 | 7 | 86 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 5 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 2 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.16