Closing spread
NO -3
Total
51.5
Model margin
-4.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.096EPA / play+0.014
- 47.7%Success rate45.5%
- +0.140EPA / dropback+0.103
- +0.039EPA / rush-0.156
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.4%
- +2.58CPOE-1.27
- 46.0%Third-down rate41.6%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
- 2.72Points / drive2.14
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 19/25 | 246 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 14 | 64 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 4 | 4 | 54 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Marquez Callaway | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 17/31 | 206 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 11 | 36 | 3.3 | 1 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Golladay | 4 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 2 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 4 | 4 | 30 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Marvin Hall | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.6%
Expected total
47.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.71