2020 · Week 4

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

35·29

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -3

Total

51.5

Model margin

-4.7est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapLions
  • +0.096EPA / play+0.014
  • 47.7%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.140EPA / dropback+0.103
  • +0.039EPA / rush-0.156
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +2.58CPOE-1.27
  • 46.0%Third-down rate41.6%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate63.0%
  • 2.72Points / drive2.14
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DET
DETQ1 15:00877Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 11:5810Turnover0–7
DETQ1 11:44318Touchdown0–14
NOQ1 10:231375Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 3:08517Punt7–14
NOQ1 0:521086Touchdown14–14
DETQ2 10:10435Turnover14–14
NOQ2 8:29980Touchdown21–14
DETQ2 3:0334Punt21–14
NOQ2 1:43434Touchdown28–14
DETQ2 0:44514Punt28–14
NOQ3 15:001158Touchdown35–14
DETQ3 8:521352Touchdown35–21
NOQ3 4:191035Punt35–21
DETQ4 13:30621Punt35–21
NOQ4 9:343-9Punt35–21
DETQ4 8:011343Touchdown35–29
NOQ4 3:40636End of half35–29

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees19/2524621

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara19834.41
Latavius Murray14644.62
Deonte Harty2105.00
Taysom Hill362.00
Drew Brees3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders69930
Tre'Quan Smith44542
Alvin Kamara34360
Latavius Murray12190
Marquez Callaway11160
Deonte Harty12100
Taysom Hill1180
Josh Hill1170

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford17/3120631

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson11363.31
D'Andre Swift4225.50
Matthew Stafford3217.00
Kerryon Johnson393.00
Jamal Agnew122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Golladay48621
Danny Amendola23570
Jesse James12310
D'Andre Swift44301
Marvin Jones1290
T.J. Hockenson2491
Kerryon Johnson1130
Jamal Agnew1210
Adrian Peterson0200
Marvin Hall0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.0%3.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.6%

Expected total

47.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.71