Closing spread
DET -7
Total
49.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
DET perspective
Push chance
4.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.030EPA / play-0.027
- 44.3%Success rate45.5%
- +0.067EPA / dropback+0.012
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.4%
- -1.21CPOE-2.91
- 47.1%Third-down rate38.5%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 2.20Points / drive2.20
- 3.4%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Shough | 35/56 | 410 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 9 | 30 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Tyler Shough | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| CJ Donaldson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Barion Brown | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 10 | 13 | 182 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 7 | 9 | 69 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 3 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Bryce Lance | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 4 | 8 | 33 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 7 | 9 | 32 | 0 |
| CJ Donaldson | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 26/39 | 206 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 29 | 156 | 5.4 | 2 |
| Sione Vaki | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10 | 14 | 67 | 2 |
| Sam LaPorta | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 |
| Jameson Williams | 4 | 9 | 45 | 0 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Sione Vaki | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Brock Wright | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Isaac TeSlaa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
4.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.26
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.04