2026 · Week 1

Final / OT

Saints

New Orleans

QB Tyler Shough

30·31

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

DET -7

Total

49.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapLions
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.144
  • 41.9%Success rate49.9%
  • +0.041EPA / dropback+0.309
  • -0.169EPA / rush-0.108
  • 6.1%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +0.08CPOE+1.18
  • 43.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 76.7%Red-zone TD rate70.4%
  • 2.19Points / drive2.92
  • 2.5%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. DET are 6-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–DET
DETQ1 15:0036Punt0–0
NOQ1 12:57620Punt0–0
DETQ1 10:041394Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 3:3933Punt0–7
DETQ1 2:33926Punt0–7
NOQ2 13:40525Punt0–7
DETQ2 12:27612Punt0–7
NOQ2 9:21612Punt0–7
DETQ2 7:4614Turnover0–7
NOQ2 7:40520Turnover0–7
DETQ2 5:2538Punt0–7
NOQ2 3:121031Punt0–7
DETQ2 0:20211End of half0–7
NOQ3 15:0010Turnover0–7
DETQ3 14:51741Touchdown0–14
NOQ3 11:143-10Turnover0–14
DETQ3 9:45325Touchdown0–21
NOQ3 8:54979Touchdown7–21
DETQ3 4:2735Punt7–21
NOQ3 3:20833Touchdown14–21
DETQ3 0:28518Punt14–21
NOQ4 13:031071Field goal17–21
DETQ4 7:41940Field goal17–24
NOQ4 2:32875Touchdown24–24
DETQ4 1:0739Punt24–24
NOQ4 0:27336Missed field goal24–24
DETOT1070Touchdown24–31
NOOT1174Touchdown30–31

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyler Shough35/5641032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne9465.10
Kendre Miller9303.31
Tyler Shough482.00
CJ Donaldson242.00
Barion Brown133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave10131820
Devaughn Vele79691
Juwan Johnson37541
Bryce Lance34420
Noah Fant48331
Travis Etienne79320
CJ Donaldson12-20

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff26/3920620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahmyr Gibbs291565.42
Sione Vaki273.50
Jared Goff221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown1014672
Sam LaPorta58480
Jameson Williams49450
Jahmyr Gibbs55300
Sione Vaki11110
Brock Wright1150
Isaac TeSlaa0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.43