Closing spread
NO -10.5
Total
59.5
Model margin
+5.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.036EPA / play+0.198
- 44.2%Success rate51.4%
- +0.101EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.104EPA / rush+0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +1.23CPOE+7.27
- 35.2%Third-down rate58.6%
- 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.98Points / drive2.96
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/43 | 380 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 12 | 15 | 211 | 2 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 4 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Will Heller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 1 |
| Tony Scheffler | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/43 | 466 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 66 | 8.3 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 10 | 51 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 7 | 120 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 8 | 111 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 2 | 2 | 64 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 7 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Adrian Arrington | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.57