2011 · WC

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

28·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -10.5

Total

59.5

Model margin

+5.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • +0.036EPA / play+0.198
  • 44.2%Success rate51.4%
  • +0.101EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.104EPA / rush+0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.23CPOE+7.27
  • 35.2%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 64.5%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.98Points / drive2.96
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2017 · W6DET @ NO38–52NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
DETQ1 15:00885Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 10:58563Turnover7–0
DETQ1 8:16932Punt7–0
NOQ1 4:201189Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 14:01987Touchdown14–7
NOQ2 9:11742Turnover14–7
DETQ2 5:3336Punt14–7
NOQ2 5:031762Field goal14–10
NOQ3 15:00478Touchdown14–17
DETQ3 13:09530Punt14–17
NOQ3 10:301392Touchdown14–24
DETQ3 4:03880Touchdown21–24
NOQ3 1:081480Touchdown21–31
DETQ4 9:5310Turnover21–31
NOQ4 9:43466Touchdown21–38
DETQ4 7:29979Touchdown28–38
NOQ4 4:40444Touchdown28–45
DETQ4 3:36213Turnover28–45
NOQ4 3:03413Turnover on downs28–45

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4338032

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kevin Smith6213.50
Titus Young188.00
Nate Burleson122.00
Matthew Stafford210.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson12152112
Nate Burleson45500
Brandon Pettigrew45490
Titus Young410330
Kevin Smith24200
Will Heller11101
Tony Scheffler1370

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees33/4346630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Pierre Thomas8668.31
Darren Sproles10515.12
Chris Ivory13473.60
Devery Henderson144.00
Drew Brees4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston771200
Robert Meachem481111
Devery Henderson22641
Pierre Thomas66550
Jimmy Graham711551
Darren Sproles45340
Adrian Arrington1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.56.3%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.8%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.57