2017 · Week 6

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

38·52

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -6

Total

50.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

NO perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapSaints
  • -0.046EPA / play+0.092
  • 40.8%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.074EPA / dropback+0.140
  • -0.278EPA / rush+0.026
  • 8.7%Explosive rate12.4%
  • +0.41CPOE+4.74
  • 38.4%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 64.3%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.37
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DET lead 8–6 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1NO @ DET30–31DET
2023 · W13DET @ NO33–28DET
2020 · W4NO @ DET35–29NO
2016 · W13DET @ NO28–13DET
2015 · W15DET @ NO35–27DET
2014 · W7NO @ DET23–24DET
2011 · playoffsDET @ NO28–45NO
2011 · W13DET @ NO17–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–NO
NOQ1 15:00520Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:563-2Opp touchdown0–7
DETQ1 11:02865Touchdown7–7
NOQ1 7:02475Touchdown7–14
DETQ1 4:5634Punt7–14
NOQ1 3:54874Field goal7–17
DETQ1 0:04414Turnover7–17
NOQ2 13:41631Touchdown7–24
DETQ2 10:46954Field goal10–24
NOQ2 6:381175Touchdown10–31
DETQ2 1:481059Turnover on downs10–31
NOQ2 0:1111End of half10–31
DETQ3 15:0030Punt10–31
NOQ3 13:3110Turnover10–31
DETQ3 13:2231Missed field goal10–31
NOQ3 12:35849Touchdown10–38
DETQ3 9:1722Opp touchdown10–45
DETQ3 8:34675Touchdown17–45
NOQ3 5:56411Turnover17–45
DETQ3 4:371161Touchdown24–45
NOQ3 1:2136Punt24–45
DETQ4 14:463-6Punt24–45
NOQ4 13:48513Opp touchdown31–45
NOQ4 11:03410Punt31–45
DETQ4 9:03521Punt31–45
NOQ4 7:292-4Opp touchdown38–45
NOQ4 6:4137Punt38–45
DETQ4 5:1120Opp touchdown38–52
DETQ4 5:0430Turnover38–52
NOQ4 4:3535Punt38–52
DETQ4 4:154-2Punt38–52
NOQ4 2:3836Punt38–52
DETQ4 1:0721End of half38–52

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford25/5231233

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ameer Abdullah14543.90
Theo Riddick284.00
Matthew Stafford242.00
Zach Zenner100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Golden Tate77961
Marvin Jones614961
Theo Riddick57450
T.J. Jones39330
Darren Fells24261
Eric Ebron1390
Jared Abbrederis1470
Zach Zenner0100
Ameer Abdullah0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees20/3018622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram251144.62
Alvin Kamara10757.50
Ted Ginn133.00
Drew Brees111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ted Ginn44661
Mark Ingram55360
Michael Hoomanawanui23271
Brandon Coleman24230
Alvin Kamara33120
Willie Snead13110
Michael Thomas36110
Coby Fleener0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

3.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.18