Closing spread
NO -6
Total
50.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
NO perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.046EPA / play+0.092
- 40.8%Success rate45.3%
- +0.074EPA / dropback+0.140
- -0.278EPA / rush+0.026
- 8.7%Explosive rate12.4%
- +0.41CPOE+4.74
- 38.4%Third-down rate38.5%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate65.9%
- 1.78Points / drive2.37
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DET lead 8–6 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 54.6 points. NO are 8-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 25/52 | 312 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ameer Abdullah | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Theo Riddick | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 7 | 7 | 96 | 1 |
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 14 | 96 | 1 |
| Theo Riddick | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| T.J. Jones | 3 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 4 | 26 | 1 |
| Eric Ebron | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jared Abbrederis | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 20/30 | 186 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 25 | 114 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 10 | 75 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 4 | 66 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 2 | 3 | 27 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 3 | 6 | 11 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
3.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.18