Closing spread
JAX -6
Total
38
Model margin
-1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play-0.099
- 42.5%Success rate40.0%
- +0.113EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.079EPA / rush-0.098
- 9.0%Explosive rate6.2%
- 41.0%Third-down rate34.0%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.68Points / drive1.30
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.066EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 33–16 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. HOU are 28-20-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 13:01 | 13 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| HOU | Q1 6:02 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q1 2:21 | 7 | 43 | Missed field goal | 7–3 |
| HOU | Q2 14:07 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q2 11:43 | 13 | 71 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| HOU | Q2 4:35 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q2 1:03 | 7 | 46 | End of half | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–13 |
| HOU | Q3 12:49 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q3 7:31 | 8 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| HOU | Q3 4:03 | 8 | 40 | Missed field goal | 17–13 |
| JAX | Q3 0:12 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–13 |
| HOU | Q4 13:34 | 3 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| JAX | Q4 12:15 | 7 | 61 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| HOU | Q4 9:16 | 8 | 22 | Missed field goal | 24–20 |
| JAX | Q4 6:03 | 7 | 57 | Touchdown | 31–20 |
| HOU | Q4 2:37 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 31–20 |
| JAX | Q4 2:03 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 38–20 |
| HOU | Q4 1:51 | 8 | 48 | End of half | 38–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 18/31 | 292 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| LaBrandon Toefield | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Matt Jones | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alvin Pearman | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 19/29 | 295 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 21 | 86 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Vernand Morency | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.21
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.83