2005 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.014
- 42.4%Success rate41.3%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/41 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 7/11 | 112 | 2 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 5/7 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1/1 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 108 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.13