2005 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
38
Model margin
+3.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.014
- 42.4%Success rate41.3%
- +0.087EPA / dropback+0.100
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.083
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- 39.9%Third-down rate43.1%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate58.5%
- 1.87Points / drive1.80
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.047EPA / play allowed-0.058
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999
Meetings average 40.1 points. WAS are 24-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYG | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 13:10 | 14 | 70 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 6:02 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q1 3:10 | 2 | -1 | Opp touchdown | 10–7 |
| WAS | Q1 2:20 | 4 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q1 0:13 | 3 | 10 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 14:13 | 7 | 28 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q2 10:07 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 7:47 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–14 |
| NYG | Q2 6:13 | 4 | 18 | Turnover | 10–14 |
| WAS | Q2 4:00 | 2 | 20 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| NYG | Q2 3:15 | 11 | 67 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| WAS | Q2 0:10 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–21 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 17–21 |
| NYG | Q3 13:54 | 11 | 54 | Missed field goal | 17–21 |
| WAS | Q3 7:57 | 5 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| NYG | Q3 5:45 | 7 | 9 | Field goal | 20–28 |
| WAS | Q3 2:55 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–35 |
| NYG | Q4 12:43 | 5 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 20–35 |
| WAS | Q4 10:38 | 4 | 20 | Punt | 20–35 |
| NYG | Q4 7:38 | 10 | 76 | Turnover on downs | 20–35 |
| WAS | Q4 5:16 | 9 | 29 | Punt | 20–35 |
| NYG | Q4 0:13 | 1 | 6 | End of half | 20–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/41 | 244 | 1 | 1 |
| Tiki Barber | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 16 | 80 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 7/11 | 112 | 2 | 1 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 5/7 | 104 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 1/1 | 17 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 108 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 36 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.13