Closing spread
DEN -12.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/29 | 268 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Adams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.