Closing spread
DEN -12.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–DEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 55 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 10:42 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| DEN | Q1 5:34 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LV | Q1 0:33 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 14:30 | 7 | 51 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 11:04 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DEN | Q2 9:04 | 11 | 61 | Touchdown | 0–16 |
| LV | Q2 2:17 | 11 | 64 | Turnover | 0–16 |
| DEN | Q2 0:42 | 4 | 23 | End of half | 0–16 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Field goal | 0–16 |
| DEN | Q3 14:48 | 4 | 7 | Field goal | 0–19 |
| LV | Q3 13:13 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 0–19 |
| DEN | Q3 12:03 | 5 | 40 | Field goal | 0–22 |
| LV | Q3 9:19 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–22 |
| DEN | Q3 7:48 | 9 | 47 | Missed field goal | 0–22 |
| LV | Q3 3:01 | 14 | 38 | Field goal | 3–22 |
| DEN | Q4 14:10 | 12 | 36 | Punt | 3–22 |
| LV | Q4 6:45 | 13 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 3–22 |
| DEN | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–22 |
| LV | Q4 0:17 | 1 | 15 | End of half | 3–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 19/29 | 268 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 71 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Mike Anderson | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Plummer | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Ashley Lelie | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Adams | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.79%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.