Closing spread
KC -1
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:26 | 6 | 43 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:28 | 13 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q1 4:06 | 9 | 82 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 14:53 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 11:53 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:47 | 1 | 0 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:42 | 1 | 4 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 11:03 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 7–14 |
| LAC | Q2 7:51 | 5 | 30 | Punt | 7–14 |
| KC | Q2 4:22 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q2 1:13 | 9 | 35 | Missed field goal | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 9:13 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q3 6:53 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q3 5:25 | 16 | 61 | Turnover on downs | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q4 10:48 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q4 9:09 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 7–20 |
| LAC | Q4 6:44 | 15 | 34 | Turnover on downs | 7–20 |
| KC | Q4 3:37 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 7–20 |
| KC | Q4 1:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 19/35 | 207 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 32 | 131 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.49
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.