Closing spread
STL -9
Total
42
Model margin
+5.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 31–24–1 since 1999
Meetings average 43.4 points. STL are 23-31-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 73 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:44 | 13 | 50 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 7:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 5:32 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–3 |
| SF | Q1 4:07 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:24 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 14:56 | 8 | 23 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 10:10 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| SF | Q2 8:32 | 5 | -5 | Punt | 7–17 |
| LA | Q2 5:22 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 7–20 |
| SF | Q2 3:33 | 7 | 74 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| LA | Q2 1:19 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–20 |
| SF | Q2 0:17 | 2 | 22 | Field goal | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 17–20 |
| SF | Q3 11:16 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 7:13 | 12 | 74 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| SF | Q4 14:54 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LA | Q4 12:14 | 6 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 17–20 |
| SF | Q4 9:11 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–20 |
| LA | Q4 4:05 | 8 | 55 | Turnover | 24–20 |
| SF | Q4 0:59 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 12/16 | 131 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Hicks | 10 | 109 | 10.9 | 1 |
| Frank Gore | 10 | 68 | 6.8 | 2 |
| Alex Smith | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.30%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.57
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.