Closing spread
MIA -5.5
Total
43
Model margin
+5.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play-0.040
- 40.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.080EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.086
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 34.5%Third-down rate35.3%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 1.17Points / drive1.48
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.029
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
TEN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. MIA are 8-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TEN–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 11:32 | 6 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 8:28 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 7:21 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 5:11 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:33 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 3:20 | 3 | 4 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q1 1:49 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 14:20 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 11:27 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–0 |
| TEN | Q2 10:29 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| MIA | Q2 10:23 | 7 | 34 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| TEN | Q2 7:31 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| MIA | Q2 6:37 | 8 | 61 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| TEN | Q2 2:48 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| MIA | Q2 1:43 | 9 | 43 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q2 0:27 | 2 | 5 | End of half | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q3 13:27 | 10 | 36 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q3 7:54 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q3 7:02 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q3 4:11 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 3–17 |
| TEN | Q3 1:39 | 7 | 32 | Punt | 3–17 |
| MIA | Q4 14:05 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 9–17 |
| TEN | Q4 12:30 | 1 | 55 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q4 12:20 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q4 10:21 | 8 | 14 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q4 5:58 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q4 4:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–17 |
| MIA | Q4 2:21 | 5 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| TEN | Q4 1:48 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–24 |
| MIA | Q4 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 14/24 | 132 | 1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5/13 | 34 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 16 | 65 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Bobby Wade | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gus Frerotte | 14/30 | 151 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 26 | 172 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Sammy Morris | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Gus Frerotte | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.38
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.94