Closing spread
BAL -3
Total
37
Model margin
-1.4est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Browns
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.109EPA / play-0.131
- 38.7%Success rate39.5%
- -0.061EPA / dropback-0.097
- -0.179EPA / rush-0.183
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
- 39.5%Third-down rate32.4%
- 39.7%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
- 1.20Points / drive1.22
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
- -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Boller | 15/36 | 151 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Lewis | 20 | 89 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Kyle Boller | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 22/38 | 199 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 40 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lee Suggs | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.04
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-1.42