2005 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Kyle Boller

16·20

Browns

Cleveland

QB Charlie Frye

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 39°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -3

Total

37

Model margin

-1.4est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapBrowns
  • -0.109EPA / play-0.131
  • 38.7%Success rate39.5%
  • -0.061EPA / dropback-0.097
  • -0.179EPA / rush-0.183
  • 7.2%Explosive rate7.4%
  • 39.5%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 39.7%Red-zone TD rate38.1%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.22
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.1%
  • -0.088EPA / play allowed-0.004

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. CLE are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–CLE
CLEQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
BALQ1 13:4032Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:383-3Punt0–0
BALQ1 11:09520Punt0–0
CLEQ1 8:4330Punt0–0
BALQ1 7:3135Punt0–0
CLEQ1 6:1539Punt0–0
BALQ1 4:151062Field goal3–0
CLEQ2 14:2110Turnover3–0
BALQ2 14:0544Turnover3–0
CLEQ2 12:463-7Punt3–0
BALQ2 10:54516Field goal6–0
CLEQ2 8:163-5Opp touchdown13–0
CLEQ2 7:05866Field goal13–3
BALQ2 2:43939Turnover13–3
CLEQ2 1:09542Field goal13–6
BALQ3 15:0031Punt13–6
CLEQ3 13:59644Turnover13–6
BALQ3 10:47416Field goal16–6
CLEQ3 8:45324Touchdown16–13
BALQ3 7:2737Opp touchdown16–20
BALQ3 6:05516Punt16–20
CLEQ3 3:48727Punt16–20
BALQ4 14:23619Punt16–20
CLEQ4 10:51613Punt16–20
BALQ4 7:44437Punt16–20
CLEQ4 4:58618Punt16–20
BALQ4 2:231023Turnover16–20
CLEQ4 0:5839Turnover on downs16–20

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Boller15/3615102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis20894.50
Chester Taylor8364.50
Kyle Boller242.00

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Frye22/3819912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reuben Droughns19402.10
Charlie Frye284.00
Lee Suggs263.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.3%

Expected total

42.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.04
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-1.42