2005 · Week 17

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Jon Kitna

3·37

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Trent Green

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

KC -7.5

Total

47

Model margin

+9.8est.

KC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapChiefs
  • +0.102EPA / play+0.097
  • 48.2%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.159EPA / dropback+0.143
  • +0.023EPA / rush+0.042
  • 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
  • 43.8%Third-down rate43.7%
  • 60.3%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.30Points / drive2.01
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
  • +0.010EPA / play allowed+0.004

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 9–6 since 1999

KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2CIN @ KC25–26KC
2023 · W17CIN @ KC17–25KC
2022 · playoffsCIN @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W13KC @ CIN24–27CIN
2021 · playoffsCIN @ KC27–24CIN
2021 · W17KC @ CIN31–34CIN
2018 · W7CIN @ KC10–45KC
2015 · W4KC @ CIN21–36CIN

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna13/247602
Carson Palmer5/85400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rudi Johnson10181.80
Chris Perry8101.30
Chad Johnson166.00
Jon Kitna133.00
Nicolas Luchey100.00
Tab Perry100.00

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trent Green23/2934410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Larry Johnson262017.73
Dee Brown122.00
Trent Green5-1-0.20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.52.5%5.0%6.7%3.1%4.9%3.5%3.5%2.9%2.6%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

74.0%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.83
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+9.79