Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
47
Model margin
+9.8est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play+0.097
- 48.2%Success rate45.7%
- +0.159EPA / dropback+0.143
- +0.023EPA / rush+0.042
- 9.1%Explosive rate10.6%
- 43.8%Third-down rate43.7%
- 60.3%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.30Points / drive2.01
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.9%
- +0.010EPA / play allowed+0.004
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Q1 15:00 | 9 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:21 | 10 | 56 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| CIN | Q1 4:43 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| KC | Q1 1:12 | 10 | 89 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| CIN | Q2 10:27 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–6 |
| KC | Q2 7:52 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 3–6 |
| CIN | Q2 5:20 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–6 |
| KC | Q2 3:49 | 5 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–13 |
| CIN | Q2 1:54 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–13 |
| KC | Q2 1:37 | 2 | 41 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| CIN | Q2 1:14 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–20 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–27 |
| CIN | Q3 12:41 | 4 | 10 | Punt | 3–27 |
| KC | Q3 9:53 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–27 |
| CIN | Q3 7:13 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 3–27 |
| KC | Q3 7:06 | 4 | 63 | Field goal | 3–30 |
| CIN | Q3 4:11 | 15 | 54 | Turnover on downs | 3–30 |
| KC | Q4 12:18 | 8 | 65 | Turnover | 3–30 |
| CIN | Q4 8:20 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 3–30 |
| KC | Q4 5:38 | 5 | 49 | Touchdown | 3–37 |
| CIN | Q4 2:47 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–37 |
| KC | Q4 1:46 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–37 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 13/24 | 76 | 0 | 2 |
| Carson Palmer | 5/8 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 10 | 18 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Chris Perry | 8 | 10 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Chad Johnson | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Nicolas Luchey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Tab Perry | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 23/29 | 344 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 26 | 201 | 7.7 | 3 |
| Dee Brown | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 5 | -1 | -0.2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
74.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.40
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.83
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+9.79