Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44
Model margin
+0.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 8/14 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 2/8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.