Closing spread
SD -7
Total
44
Model margin
+0.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
4.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 13:24 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 9:52 | 3 | -7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 8:20 | 9 | 29 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:37 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 2:34 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 1:11 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 11:48 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 8:51 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 7:11 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 5:48 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q2 4:22 | 3 | -7 | Turnover | 13–0 |
| DEN | Q2 3:27 | 1 | 1 | Touchdown | 14–0 |
| LAC | Q2 3:24 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q2 0:38 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 33 | Punt | 14–7 |
| DEN | Q3 11:56 | 14 | 50 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q3 5:37 | 1 | -4 | Safety | 16–7 |
| DEN | Q3 5:30 | 13 | 41 | Missed field goal | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q4 12:53 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 16–7 |
| DEN | Q4 10:50 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 16–7 |
| LAC | Q4 8:34 | 9 | 29 | Turnover | 22–7 |
| DEN | Q4 4:38 | 1 | 19 | Touchdown | 23–7 |
| LAC | Q4 4:32 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 23–7 |
| DEN | Q4 3:43 | 6 | 24 | End of half | 23–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Plummer | 8/14 | 91 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 2/8 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 64 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Tatum Bell | 17 | 52 | 3.1 | 3 |
| Bradlee Van Pelt | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.18
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.39
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.