Closing spread
GB -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
GB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Packers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.156EPA / play-0.059
- 49.3%Success rate42.0%
- +0.205EPA / dropback-0.003
- +0.100EPA / rush-0.158
- 11.2%Explosive rate6.6%
- 40.1%Third-down rate41.1%
- 78.4%Red-zone TD rate51.1%
- 2.39Points / drive1.29
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.8%
- -0.046EPA / play allowed-0.052
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 12–6 since 1999
GB have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. GB are 12-4-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 13 | 62 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 8:44 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| GB | Q1 7:07 | 8 | 64 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| SEA | Q1 3:05 | 10 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 13:00 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 7–6 |
| SEA | Q2 12:54 | 4 | -5 | Turnover on downs | 7–6 |
| GB | Q2 11:12 | 9 | 35 | Touchdown | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q2 8:22 | 5 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 5:12 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q2 2:07 | 8 | 54 | Turnover | 7–13 |
| GB | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–13 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 10:32 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 14–13 |
| SEA | Q3 7:06 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–13 |
| GB | Q3 7:00 | 9 | 9 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q3 3:41 | 6 | 5 | Punt | 14–20 |
| GB | Q3 1:44 | 2 | 55 | Turnover | 14–20 |
| SEA | Q3 0:45 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 14–20 |
| GB | Q4 14:51 | 8 | 24 | Field goal | 14–23 |
| SEA | Q4 10:56 | 4 | 31 | Punt | 14–23 |
| GB | Q4 9:25 | 5 | 10 | Turnover | 14–23 |
| SEA | Q4 6:33 | 3 | -8 | Punt | 14–23 |
| GB | Q4 5:18 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 14–23 |
| SEA | Q4 2:49 | 5 | 24 | Field goal | 17–23 |
| GB | Q4 1:38 | 3 | 2 | End of half | 17–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 9/17 | 98 | 1 | 1 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6/8 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Maurice Morris | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 21/37 | 259 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Herron | 23 | 61 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Tony Fisher | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Antonio Chatman | 1 | -7 | -7.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.47
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.49
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.50