Closing spread
DAL -12.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:08 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 10:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 8:12 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:54 | 6 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:36 | 7 | 35 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:15 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 12:45 | 12 | 53 | Missed field goal | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 7:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 5:11 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:52 | 9 | 41 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q2 0:03 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 12:49 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 11:52 | 6 | 4 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 9:38 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 5:45 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 10–10 |
| DAL | Q3 2:22 | 8 | 15 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| LA | Q4 13:31 | 4 | 40 | Touchdown | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 11:57 | 7 | 39 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 9:28 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 7:20 | 4 | 34 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 6:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 2:41 | 4 | 4 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| LA | Q4 2:07 | 3 | 1 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| DAL | Q4 1:05 | 5 | 27 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| LA | Q4 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 18/39 | 242 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 15 | 35 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.03
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.53
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.