Closing spread
DAL -5
Total
51
Model margin
+1.0est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.008
- 43.3%Success rate43.8%
- +0.131EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.050EPA / rush+0.027
- 11.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -1.32CPOE-0.45
- 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
- 56.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 2.27Points / drive1.85
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/36 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 121 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 6 | 48 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 7 | 8 | 94 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 7 | 60 | 1 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Sammy Watkins | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/36 | 252 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 76 | 38.0 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 25 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Switzer | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 5 | 13 | 98 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 28 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Brice Butler | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.32
- Expected margin+1.00