2017 · Week 4

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

35·30

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -5

Total

51

Model margin

+1.0est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.008
  • 43.3%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.131EPA / dropback-0.007
  • -0.050EPA / rush+0.027
  • 11.4%Explosive rate7.8%
  • -1.32CPOE-0.45
  • 41.3%Third-down rate43.3%
  • 56.1%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 2.27Points / drive1.85
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LA @ DAL20–43DAL
2022 · W5DAL @ LA22–10DAL
2020 · W1DAL @ LA17–20RAMS
2019 · W15LA @ DAL21–44DAL
2018 · playoffsDAL @ LA22–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DAL
DALQ1 15:00759Field goal0–3
LAQ1 11:30853Field goal3–3
DALQ1 7:071681Touchdown3–10
LAQ2 14:0544Field goal6–10
DALQ2 12:39572Touchdown6–17
LAQ2 10:53512Punt6–17
LAQ2 8:29518Touchdown13–17
DALQ2 6:33975Touchdown13–24
LAQ2 1:51744Field goal16–24
LAQ3 15:0033Punt16–24
DALQ3 13:10515Punt16–24
LAQ3 10:41754Field goal19–24
DALQ3 7:26522Punt19–24
LAQ3 4:58490Touchdown26–24
DALQ3 2:5934Punt26–24
LAQ3 1:221158Field goal29–24
DALQ4 11:5631Turnover29–24
LAQ4 11:0034Field goal32–24
DALQ4 9:41775Touchdown32–30
LAQ4 7:111173Field goal35–30
DALQ4 1:55936Turnover on downs35–30
LAQ4 0:2700End of half35–30

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3625520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley231215.30
Tavon Austin6488.00
Malcolm Brown100.00
Jared Goff1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Todd Gurley78941
Cooper Kupp57601
Tyler Higbee36470
Robert Woods26170
Sammy Watkins12170
Malcolm Brown11140
Gerald Everett1380
Tavon Austin12-20

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3625231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott21854.01
Alfred Morris27638.00
Dak Prescott3258.30
Ryan Switzer133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant513980
Ezekiel Elliott45541
Terrance Williams46340
James Hanna11281
Cole Beasley36170
Brice Butler22121
Jason Witten1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.6%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

1.89%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.32
  • Expected margin+1.00