2020 · Week 1

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

17·20

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

52

Model margin

+0.5est.

LA perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Rams

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRams
  • -0.029EPA / play-0.013
  • 46.1%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.032
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
  • 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
  • -1.42CPOE+0.37
  • 41.5%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.76
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LA @ DAL20–43DAL
2022 · W5DAL @ LA22–10DAL
2019 · W15LA @ DAL21–44DAL
2018 · playoffsDAL @ LA22–30RAMS
2017 · W4LA @ DAL35–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LA
LAQ1 15:00770Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 11:37623Punt0–7
LAQ1 8:591667Missed field goal0–7
DALQ1 0:02895Touchdown7–7
LAQ2 12:241063Field goal7–10
DALQ2 8:42840Missed field goal7–10
LAQ2 5:12644Field goal7–13
DALQ2 1:561083Touchdown14–13
LAQ2 0:17112End of half14–13
DALQ3 15:00721Punt14–13
LAQ3 11:241290Touchdown14–20
DALQ3 5:33413Punt14–20
LAQ3 4:2233Turnover14–20
DALQ3 3:43620Field goal17–20
LAQ3 1:5037Punt17–20
DALQ3 0:16955Turnover on downs17–20
LAQ4 11:40947Punt17–20
DALQ4 6:2235Punt17–20
LAQ4 5:03520Punt17–20
DALQ4 2:281125Turnover on downs17–20
LAQ4 0:0600End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3926610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott22964.41
Dak Prescott33010.00
Tony Pollard2105.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper1014810
CeeDee Lamb56590
Michael Gallup35500
Ezekiel Elliott34311
Tony Pollard23220
Blake Jarwin11120
Dalton Schultz14110

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff20/3127501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malcolm Brown18794.42
Cam Akers14392.80
Jared Goff4153.80
Robert Woods11414.00
Darrell Henderson362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods681050
Tyler Higbee34400
Cooper Kupp45400
Malcolm Brown34310
Van Jefferson13310
Josh Reynolds11170
Gerald Everett1270
Cam Akers1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

39.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.49