Closing spread
LA -1
Total
52
Model margin
+0.5est.
LA perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play-0.013
- 46.1%Success rate44.6%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.032
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.081
- 7.8%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.42CPOE+0.37
- 41.5%Third-down rate44.2%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate59.0%
- 1.87Points / drive1.76
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/39 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 96 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 10 | 14 | 81 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 20/31 | 275 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brown | 18 | 79 | 4.4 | 2 |
| Cam Akers | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 8 | 105 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 3 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Van Jefferson | 1 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
39.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.53
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49