Closing spread
DAL -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutRodger SaffoldTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDarian StewartSThigh· Full
- QuestionableMike McNeillTEChest· DNP
- DNPQuinton PointerCBThigh
- ProbableChris LongDEHip· Full
- ProbableChris WilliamsGFoot· Full
- ProbableCortland FinneganCBNose· Full
- ProbableDaryl RichardsonRBFoot· Full
- ProbableEugene SimsDEFoot· Full
- ProbableWilliam HayesDEHip· Full
Cowboys
- OutErnie SimsLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony SpencerDEKnee· DNP
- ProbableDeMarcus WareDENeck· Limited
- ProbableDez BryantWRBack· Full
- ProbableMorris ClaiborneCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTony RomoQBRibs· Full
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:03 | 4 | -4 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:58 | 9 | 55 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:06 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 5:43 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 2:06 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–10 |
| DAL | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 67 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 9:10 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q2 7:01 | 5 | 14 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 3:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q2 1:45 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:41 | 2 | 1 | End of half | 0–17 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| LA | Q3 11:39 | 1 | 25 | Turnover | 0–24 |
| DAL | Q3 11:25 | 6 | 18 | Missed field goal | 0–24 |
| LA | Q3 9:35 | 14 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q3 3:20 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 7–24 |
| LA | Q4 14:46 | 5 | 25 | Turnover on downs | 7–24 |
| DAL | Q4 13:19 | 3 | 45 | Touchdown | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 11:55 | 12 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 7–31 |
| DAL | Q4 8:20 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 7–31 |
| LA | Q4 4:08 | 16 | 72 | End of half | 7–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/24 | 210 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 26 | 175 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Phillip Tanner | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 5 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.