Closing spread
LA -1
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.001EPA / play+0.111
- 44.3%Success rate48.7%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.192
- -0.159EPA / rush-0.017
- 10.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -1.88CPOE+1.10
- 38.8%Third-down rate47.2%
- 62.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.95Points / drive2.45
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 33/51 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 11 | 20 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 12 | 14 | 111 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 8 | 46 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 6 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Josh Reynolds | 2 | 4 | 36 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 3 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Robert Woods | 4 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 15/23 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 131 | 10.9 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 117 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Dak Prescott | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 59 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Amari Cooper | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+3.40