2019 · Week 15

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

21·44

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

LA -1

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.4est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.001EPA / play+0.111
  • 44.3%Success rate48.7%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.192
  • -0.159EPA / rush-0.017
  • 10.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -1.88CPOE+1.10
  • 38.8%Third-down rate47.2%
  • 62.9%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
  • 1.95Points / drive2.45
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LA @ DAL20–43DAL
2022 · W5DAL @ LA22–10DAL
2020 · W1DAL @ LA17–20RAMS
2018 · playoffsDAL @ LA22–30RAMS
2017 · W4LA @ DAL35–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DAL
LAQ1 15:00714Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:48518Punt0–0
LAQ1 10:54722Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:081690Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 1:47975Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 12:58375Touchdown7–14
LAQ2 11:3735Punt7–14
DALQ2 9:541497Touchdown7–21
LAQ2 1:5735Turnover7–21
DALQ2 1:1645Touchdown7–28
LAQ2 0:1600End of half7–28
DALQ3 15:00743Field goal7–31
LAQ3 11:093-10Punt7–31
DALQ3 9:4135Punt7–31
LAQ3 7:441249Turnover on downs7–31
DALQ3 3:45640Field goal7–34
LAQ4 14:563-5Punt7–34
DALQ4 13:39957Field goal7–37
LAQ4 6:401475Touchdown15–37
DALQ4 3:17246Touchdown15–44
LAQ4 3:001160Touchdown21–44
DALQ4 0:4000End of half21–44

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff33/5128421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley11201.81
Jared Goff320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Higbee12141110
Brandin Cooks48460
Cooper Kupp66411
Josh Reynolds24360
Todd Gurley36181
Robert Woods49170
Johnny Mundt23150
Mike Thomas1150

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott15/2321220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard1213110.91
Ezekiel Elliott241174.92
Dak Prescott7121.70
Tavon Austin231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tavon Austin11591
Ezekiel Elliott34430
Blake Jarwin23400
Jason Witten45361
Amari Cooper12190
Tony Pollard22120
Michael Gallup1360
Randall Cobb12-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -13.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.42
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+3.40