2022 · Week 5

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Cooper Rush

22·10

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LA -5.5

Total

42

Model margin

+3.9est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRams
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.083
  • 45.2%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.094
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.065
  • 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.95CPOE-2.69
  • 46.2%Third-down rate40.2%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.57
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LA @ DAL20–43DAL
2020 · W1DAL @ LA17–20RAMS
2019 · W15LA @ DAL21–44DAL
2018 · playoffsDAL @ LA22–30RAMS
2017 · W4LA @ DAL35–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LA
LAQ1 15:003-2Opp touchdown6–0
LAQ1 13:27829Punt6–0
DALQ1 9:3435Field goal9–0
LAQ1 8:43660Field goal9–3
DALQ1 5:22614Punt9–3
LAQ1 2:00627Punt9–3
DALQ2 12:54419Punt9–3
LAQ2 11:00383Touchdown9–10
DALQ2 9:31375Touchdown16–10
LAQ2 7:5933Punt16–10
DALQ2 6:27520Punt16–10
LAQ2 3:211036Punt16–10
DALQ2 0:2314End of half16–10
DALQ3 15:001253Field goal19–10
LAQ3 8:11917Punt19–10
DALQ3 2:46410Punt19–10
LAQ3 0:3046Missed field goal19–10
DALQ4 13:3435Punt19–10
LAQ4 12:3337Punt19–10
DALQ4 11:09835Field goal22–10
LAQ4 5:32740Turnover22–10
DALQ4 3:2932Punt22–10
LAQ4 2:21417Turnover22–10
DALQ4 1:3100End of half22–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cooper Rush10/1610200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard88610.81
Ezekiel Elliott22783.50
Cooper Rush4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb58530
Michael Gallup45440
Noah Brown1250
Dalton Schultz0100

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford28/4230811
Cooper Kupp0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers13332.50
Cooper Kupp144.00
Brandon Powell111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cooper Kupp7101251
Tutu Atwell12540
Tyler Higbee710460
Ben Skowronek68410
Darrell Henderson45300
Allen Robinson35120
Cam Akers0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.5%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.84
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.92