Closing spread
LA -5.5
Total
42
Model margin
+3.9est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.083
- 45.2%Success rate41.2%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.094
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.065
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.95CPOE-2.69
- 46.2%Third-down rate40.2%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.26Points / drive1.57
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Rush | 10/16 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 22 | 78 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 5 | 8 | 53 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 4 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 28/42 | 308 | 1 | 1 |
| Cooper Kupp | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 13 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 7 | 10 | 125 | 1 |
| Tutu Atwell | 1 | 2 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 7 | 10 | 46 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 6 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Darrell Henderson | 4 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+4.84
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.92