Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cowboys
- OutAnthony SpencerDEKnee· DNP
- OutDavon ColemanDTKnee· DNP
- OutJustin DurantLBGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulRolando McClainLBGroin· DNP
- QuestionableDez BryantWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGavin EscobarTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJoseph RandleRBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableLavar EdwardsDEKnee· Full
- ProbableGeorge SelvieDEShoulder· Full
- ProbableKen BishopDTIllness· Full
- ProbableTony RomoQBBack· Full
- ProbableZack MartinGFoot· Full
Rams
- OutBarrett JonesCBack· DNP
- OutBrandon McGeeCBFoot· DNP
- OutTrumaine JohnsonCBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableCory HarkeyTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableShaun HillQBThigh· Limited
- QuestionableTavon AustinWRKnee· Limited
- ProbableRodger SaffoldGIllness· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. STL are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 15 | 80 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 6:10 | 7 | 42 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 2:03 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 14:54 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 13:23 | 10 | 25 | Punt | 0–14 |
| DAL | Q2 7:35 | 3 | 2 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| DAL | Q2 6:06 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| LA | Q2 2:07 | 7 | 36 | Turnover | 7–21 |
| DAL | Q2 0:39 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 10–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–21 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 83 | Touchdown | 17–21 |
| LA | Q3 12:48 | 11 | 64 | Turnover on downs | 17–21 |
| DAL | Q3 7:03 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 20–21 |
| LA | Q3 2:43 | 8 | 82 | Field goal | 20–24 |
| DAL | Q4 13:28 | 12 | 61 | Touchdown | 27–24 |
| LA | Q4 6:13 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 34–24 |
| LA | Q4 5:58 | 12 | 75 | Touchdown | 34–31 |
| DAL | Q4 2:36 | 5 | 7 | Punt | 34–31 |
| LA | Q4 1:58 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 34–31 |
| DAL | Q4 1:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 34–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/23 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.