Closing spread
DAL -1.5
Total
45
Model margin
-0.1est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. STL are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/23 | 217 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 24 | 100 | 4.2 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 7 | 89 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 3 | 32 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 4 | 4 | 31 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.9%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.06
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.