Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
48
Model margin
+3.4est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.009EPA / play+0.149
- 43.9%Success rate50.8%
- +0.051EPA / dropback+0.203
- -0.060EPA / rush+0.065
- 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
- +1.03CPOE+1.24
- 41.3%Third-down rate45.0%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 1.93Points / drive2.63
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 20/32 | 266 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20 | 47 | 2.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Gallup | 6 | 9 | 119 | 0 |
| Amari Cooper | 6 | 9 | 65 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 15/28 | 186 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 23 | 123 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Todd Gurley | 16 | 115 | 7.2 | 1 |
| Jared Goff | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 6 | 8 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Todd Gurley | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.17
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+3.39