2018 · DIV

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

22·30

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

48

Model margin

+3.4est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapRams
  • +0.009EPA / play+0.149
  • 43.9%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.051EPA / dropback+0.203
  • -0.060EPA / rush+0.065
  • 8.9%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +1.03CPOE+1.24
  • 41.3%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 1.93Points / drive2.63
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. LA are 5-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W8LA @ DAL20–43DAL
2022 · W5DAL @ LA22–10DAL
2020 · W1DAL @ LA17–20RAMS
2019 · W15LA @ DAL21–44DAL
2017 · W4LA @ DAL35–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–LA
LAQ1 15:001057Field goal0–3
DALQ1 9:44756Touchdown7–3
LAQ1 6:031570Field goal7–6
DALQ2 13:40421Punt7–6
LAQ2 11:20976Touchdown7–13
DALQ2 7:0035Punt7–13
LAQ2 6:05759Touchdown7–20
DALQ2 3:27937Punt7–20
LAQ2 0:35429Missed field goal7–20
DALQ3 15:0033Punt7–20
LAQ3 14:07752Field goal7–23
DALQ3 10:031085Touchdown15–23
LAQ3 5:20528Punt15–23
DALQ3 3:10842Turnover on downs15–23
LAQ4 14:521265Touchdown15–30
DALQ4 7:161359Touchdown22–30
LAQ4 2:11525End of half22–30

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott20/3226610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott20472.41
Dak Prescott231.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Gallup691190
Amari Cooper69651
Dalton Schultz12200
Ezekiel Elliott25190
Blake Jarwin22170
Cole Beasley12150
Noah Brown11130
Rico Gathers0100
Tavon Austin11-20

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff15/2818600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson231235.32
Todd Gurley161157.21
Jared Goff6122.00
Robert Woods199.00
Josh Reynolds199.00
Brandin Cooks155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods68690
Brandin Cooks46650
Tyler Higbee24300
Josh Reynolds14190
Todd Gurley2230
C.J. Anderson0100
Gerald Everett0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.2%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.17
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+3.39