Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.042EPA / play+0.121
- 44.9%Success rate48.0%
- +0.085EPA / dropback+0.229
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.061
- 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -3.54CPOE+3.68
- 41.4%Third-down rate49.6%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.13Points / drive2.67
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 8–5 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 13/22 | 162 | 1 | 1 |
| Brett Rypien | 5/10 | 42 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Freeman | 9 | 44 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Darrell Henderson | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrell Henderson | 3 | 3 | 54 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Puka Nacua | 3 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 10 | 21 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Ben Skowronek | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 25/31 | 304 | 4 | 1 |
| Cooper Rush | 2/3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Cooper Rush | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 12 | 14 | 158 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 49 | 1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 4 | 4 | 47 | 1 |
| Michael Gallup | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| KaVontae Turpin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Schoonmaker | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rico Dowdle | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean McKeon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Luepke | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.9%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.82