2023 · Week 8

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Matthew Stafford

20·43

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapCowboys
  • +0.042EPA / play+0.121
  • 44.9%Success rate48.0%
  • +0.085EPA / dropback+0.229
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.061
  • 9.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -3.54CPOE+3.68
  • 41.4%Third-down rate49.6%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.13Points / drive2.67
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 8–5 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.2 points. DAL are 8-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W5DAL @ LA22–10DAL
2020 · W1DAL @ LA17–20RAMS
2019 · W15LA @ DAL21–44DAL
2018 · playoffsDAL @ LA22–30RAMS
2017 · W4LA @ DAL35–30RAMS
2014 · W3DAL @ STL34–31DAL
2013 · W3STL @ DAL7–31DAL
2011 · W7STL @ DAL7–34DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–DAL
DALQ1 15:001169Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 9:44960Field goal3–7
DALQ1 5:22835Field goal3–10
LAQ1 0:4310Opp touchdown3–17
LAQ1 0:363-2Safety3–19
DALQ2 13:39213Touchdown3–26
LAQ2 12:4537Punt3–26
DALQ2 11:181071Turnover3–26
LAQ2 6:1234Punt3–26
DALQ2 5:08563Touchdown3–33
LAQ2 2:271475Touchdown9–33
DALQ2 0:0400End of half9–33
LAQ3 15:00775Touchdown17–33
DALQ3 11:291776Field goal17–36
LAQ3 1:32829Turnover on downs17–36
DALQ4 13:19354Touchdown17–43
LAQ4 12:1934Punt17–43
DALQ4 10:3431Punt17–43
LAQ4 8:19630Field goal20–43
DALQ4 5:3138Punt20–43
LAQ4 3:483-2Punt20–43
DALQ4 1:5300End of half20–43

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford13/2216211
Brett Rypien5/104200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Royce Freeman9444.91
Darrell Henderson12312.60
Matthew Stafford199.00
Tutu Atwell284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darrell Henderson33540
Tyler Higbee57450
Puka Nacua37430
Cooper Kupp410210
Tutu Atwell24210
Ben Skowronek11201

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott25/3130441
Cooper Rush2/3300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard12534.40
Dak Prescott4194.80
Rico Dowdle5183.60
CeeDee Lamb11212.00
Brandin Cooks133.00
Cooper Rush3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb12141582
Brandin Cooks34491
Jake Ferguson44471
Michael Gallup23200
KaVontae Turpin12130
Luke Schoonmaker11130
Rico Dowdle2270
Tony Pollard1120
Sean McKeon0100
Jalen Tolbert0100
Hunter Luepke11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.5%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.9%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.82