Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
38
Model margin
+8.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.113EPA / play+0.026
- 40.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.080EPA / dropback+0.113
- -0.171EPA / rush-0.079
- 6.1%Explosive rate9.0%
- 34.5%Third-down rate41.0%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.17Points / drive1.68
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
- +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.066
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Volek | 14/25 | 114 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Mauck | 7/14 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Henry | 13 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Damien Nash | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Matt Mauck | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 10/16 | 128 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 8/14 | 100 | 2 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 1/1 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaBrandon Toefield | 25 | 102 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Alvin Pearman | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Quinn Gray | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.44%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
70.8%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.75
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.43