2005 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Mauck

13·40

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

38

Model margin

+8.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.113EPA / play+0.026
  • 40.6%Success rate42.5%
  • -0.080EPA / dropback+0.113
  • -0.171EPA / rush-0.079
  • 6.1%Explosive rate9.0%
  • 34.5%Third-down rate41.0%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.17Points / drive1.68
  • 2.5%Turnover rate1.5%
  • +0.045EPA / play allowed-0.066

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
JAXQ1 15:001152Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 11:0939Punt0–7
JAXQ1 9:20461Touchdown0–14
TENQ1 7:1537Punt0–14
JAXQ1 5:144-3Punt0–14
TENQ1 3:1910Turnover0–14
JAXQ1 3:0738Field goal0–17
TENQ1 1:35417Punt0–17
JAXQ1 0:20413Punt0–17
TENQ2 13:31422Turnover0–17
JAXQ2 11:3835Field goal0–20
TENQ2 10:13620Turnover on downs0–20
JAXQ2 8:05859Touchdown0–27
TENQ2 4:111249Turnover on downs0–27
JAXQ2 0:3529End of half0–27
TENQ3 15:0030Punt0–27
JAXQ3 13:5535Punt0–27
TENQ3 11:5735Punt0–27
JAXQ3 10:541456Touchdown0–34
TENQ3 4:24723Turnover on downs0–34
JAXQ3 2:03348Touchdown0–40
TENQ3 0:341377Touchdown7–40
JAXQ4 9:011124Turnover7–40
TENQ4 2:48641Touchdown13–40
JAXQ4 0:5500End of half13–40

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Billy Volek14/2511420
Matt Mauck7/146501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Henry13483.70
Damien Nash6325.30
Matt Mauck3196.30

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard10/1612800
Quinn Gray8/1410020
Matt Jones1/1600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LaBrandon Toefield251024.11
Alvin Pearman6132.21
Quinn Gray310.30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +42.8%5.5%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.44%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

70.8%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.75
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.43