2005 · DIV
Final
Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 1mph
Closing spread
SEA -8.5
Total
41
Model margin
+4.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.156
- 41.3%Success rate49.3%
- +0.100EPA / dropback+0.205
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.100
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
- 43.1%Third-down rate40.1%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
- 1.80Points / drive2.39
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.046
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 40.6 points. SEA are 5-10-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | WAS–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 55 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 12:38 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 11:30 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 9:55 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 8:25 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 7:21 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 5:28 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 3:44 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 1:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 0:30 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q2 14:02 | 9 | 32 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 8:59 | 12 | 74 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 3:22 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 1:38 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q2 0:18 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 3–7 |
| WAS | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q3 13:55 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| WAS | Q3 9:35 | 16 | 59 | Turnover | 3–14 |
| SEA | Q3 1:55 | 5 | 48 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| WAS | Q4 14:16 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q4 11:59 | 0 | 0 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| WAS | Q4 11:51 | 7 | 22 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| SEA | Q4 8:01 | 9 | 60 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| WAS | Q4 2:54 | 9 | 51 | Turnover on downs | 10–20 |
| SEA | Q4 0:47 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 22/37 | 242 | 1 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 17 | 41 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 16/26 | 215 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Morris | 18 | 49 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Shaun Alexander | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.27%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.57