2005 · DIV

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

10·20

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Matt Hasselbeck

Qwest Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 44°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

Total

41

Model margin

+4.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapSeahawks
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.156
  • 41.3%Success rate49.3%
  • +0.100EPA / dropback+0.205
  • -0.083EPA / rush+0.100
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.2%
  • 43.1%Third-down rate40.1%
  • 58.5%Red-zone TD rate78.4%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.39
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.4%
  • -0.058EPA / play allowed-0.046

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 8–7 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39 points. SEA are 5-9-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W9SEA @ WAS38–14SEA
2023 · W10WAS @ SEA26–29SEA
2021 · W12SEA @ WAS15–17WAS
2020 · W15SEA @ WAS20–15SEA
2017 · W9WAS @ SEA17–14WAS
2014 · W5SEA @ WAS27–17SEA
2012 · playoffsSEA @ WAS24–14SEA
2011 · W12WAS @ SEA23–17WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell22/3724210
Clinton Portis0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis17412.40
Mark Brunell4123.00
Ladell Betts351.70
Santana Moss111.00

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck16/2621510

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Morris18492.70
Matt Hasselbeck6213.51
Shaun Alexander691.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.27%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.57