Closing spread
CAR -4.5
Total
39
Model margin
+3.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.050EPA / play-0.071
- 39.9%Success rate41.2%
- -0.078EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.112
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- -2.80CPOE-0.31
- 36.3%Third-down rate31.1%
- 48.7%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
- 1.44Points / drive1.29
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
ATL lead 33–21 since 1999
CAR have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.7 points. CAR are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 10/22 | 140 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warrick Dunn | 29 | 132 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 10 | 66 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 7 | 48 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Justin Griffith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 21/39 | 186 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeShaun Foster | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Carter | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.8%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.62