2006 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Michael Vick

20·6

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jake Delhomme

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 86°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -4.5

Total

39

Model margin

+3.6est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.050EPA / play-0.071
  • 39.9%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.078EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.112
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -2.80CPOE-0.31
  • 36.3%Third-down rate31.1%
  • 48.7%Red-zone TD rate59.1%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.29
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

ATL lead 33–22 since 1999

CAR have won 4 straight. Meetings average 42.6 points. CAR are 25-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2CAR @ ATL34–3CAR
2025 · W11CAR @ ATL30–27CAR
2025 · W3ATL @ CAR0–30CAR
2024 · W18CAR @ ATL44–38CAR
2024 · W6ATL @ CAR38–20ATL
2023 · W15ATL @ CAR7–9CAR
2023 · W1CAR @ ATL10–24ATL
2022 · W10ATL @ CAR15–25CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–CAR
ATLQ1 15:00915Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 10:15834Field goal0–3
ATLQ1 6:591169Field goal3–3
CARQ1 1:21415Punt3–3
ATLQ2 13:25970Field goal6–3
CARQ2 9:1438Punt6–3
ATLQ2 6:53641Missed field goal6–3
CARQ2 3:5536Punt6–3
ATLQ2 3:04680Touchdown13–3
CARQ2 0:28426Turnover13–3
CARQ3 15:00613Punt13–3
ATLQ3 11:1135Punt13–3
CARQ3 9:02418Field goal13–6
ATLQ3 8:04516Punt13–6
CARQ3 6:083-7Punt13–6
ATLQ3 4:21840Touchdown20–6
CARQ3 0:35526Turnover20–6
ATLQ4 13:26838Punt20–6
CARQ4 9:04834Punt20–6
ATLQ4 7:0045Punt20–6
CARQ4 5:2649Turnover on downs20–6
ATLQ4 4:1247Turnover on downs20–6
CARQ4 1:52933Turnover on downs20–6
ATLQ4 0:1300End of half20–6

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick10/2214020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Warrick Dunn291324.60
Jerious Norwood10666.60
Mike Vick7486.90
Justin Griffith166.00

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Delhomme21/3918601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeShaun Foster15543.60
Drew Carter11111.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.8%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.06
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.62