Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.044EPA / play-0.009
- 45.3%Success rate41.1%
- +0.138EPA / dropback+0.031
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.050
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- +5.38CPOE+3.07
- 36.8%Third-down rate41.1%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.98Points / drive1.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 9–6 since 1999
KC have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.1 points. KC are 6-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 13/19 | 127 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 28 | 96 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Huard | 12/20 | 140 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 11/15 | 90 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 17 | 68 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Eddie Kennison | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Damon Huard | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15