Closing spread
PIT -1.5
Total
34.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.004
- 41.6%Success rate43.1%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.085
- 7.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- -1.62CPOE+1.04
- 37.7%Third-down rate43.2%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate48.8%
- 1.19Points / drive1.68
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daunte Culpepper | 18/37 | 262 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 15 | 30 | 2.0 | 2 |
| Daunte Culpepper | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 15/25 | 209 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 29 | 115 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+1.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84