2016 · WC

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Matt Moore

12·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

PIT -11

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

1.4%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.004EPA / play+0.085
  • 42.2%Success rate46.0%
  • +0.062EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.092EPA / rush-0.043
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +4.52CPOE+1.74
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.9%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
  • 1.80Points / drive2.24
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PIT
PITQ1 15:00585Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 12:15416Punt0–7
PITQ1 10:00695Touchdown0–14
MIAQ1 6:50639Field goal3–14
PITQ1 3:061078Touchdown3–20
MIAQ2 12:391349Field goal6–20
PITQ2 4:521129Turnover6–20
MIAQ2 0:56555Turnover6–20
PITQ2 0:2100End of half6–20
MIAQ3 15:00734Turnover6–20
PITQ3 10:48743Field goal6–23
MIAQ3 6:3210Turnover6–23
PITQ3 6:23735Touchdown6–30
MIAQ3 2:0548Turnover on downs6–30
PITQ3 0:0230Punt6–30
MIAQ4 14:13510Punt6–30
PITQ4 11:2432Punt6–30
MIAQ4 10:17970Touchdown12–30
PITQ4 5:5732Turnover12–30
MIAQ4 4:231124Turnover on downs12–30
PITQ4 0:1500End of half12–30

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore29/3628911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi16332.10
Damien Williams3144.70
Matt Moore122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry11141020
Kenny Stills55820
DeVante Parker46550
Dion Sims55340
Jay Ajayi33120
Damien Williams1241
Kenyan Drake0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger13/1819722

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell291675.82
Ben Roethlisberger4102.50
DeAngelo Williams221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown591242
DeMarcus Ayers22210
Eli Rogers11190
Darrius Heyward-Bey11100
Cobi Hamilton11100
Le'Veon Bell2270
Jesse James1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +117.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

1.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.0%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.77
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.85