Closing spread
PIT -11
Total
47.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play+0.085
- 42.2%Success rate46.0%
- +0.062EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.092EPA / rush-0.043
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.8%
- +4.52CPOE+1.74
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.9%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate64.0%
- 1.80Points / drive2.24
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 29/36 | 289 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 16 | 33 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 11 | 14 | 102 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 5 | 82 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 4 | 6 | 55 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 5 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| Kenyan Drake | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/18 | 197 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 29 | 167 | 5.8 | 2 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 9 | 124 | 2 |
| DeMarcus Ayers | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
1.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.0%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.85