2009 · Week 17

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

30·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Dolphin Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

46

Model margin

+1.6est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.004
  • 44.8%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.124EPA / dropback-0.013
  • -0.083EPA / rush+0.023
  • 10.2%Explosive rate7.2%
  • +4.22CPOE+0.24
  • 40.3%Third-down rate48.8%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.82
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIA
PITQ1 15:001280Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 8:02966Touchdown7–7
PITQ1 3:18667Touchdown14–7
MIAQ1 0:251256Field goal14–10
PITQ2 9:21852Field goal17–10
MIAQ2 5:3210Turnover17–10
PITQ2 5:2410Turnover17–10
MIAQ2 5:121154Punt17–10
PITQ2 0:3412End of half17–10
MIAQ3 15:003-4Punt17–10
PITQ3 12:4836Punt17–10
MIAQ3 11:09622Punt17–10
PITQ3 8:00975Touchdown24–10
MIAQ3 3:4239Punt24–10
PITQ3 1:34825Field goal27–10
MIAQ4 13:57941Touchdown27–17
PITQ4 11:2434Punt27–17
MIAQ4 9:52362Touchdown27–24
PITQ4 8:373-5Turnover27–24
MIAQ4 6:562-3Turnover27–24
PITQ4 6:101498Field goal30–24
MIAQ4 0:4010Turnover30–24
PITQ4 0:2600End of half30–24

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/2722030
Santonio Holmes0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall20944.70
Willie Parker12917.60
Ben Roethlisberger4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace23641
Hines Ward811610
Heath Miller56561
Rashard Mendenhall13260
Mewelde Moore1280
Santonio Holmes1351

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne16/2014011
Tyler Thigpen4/88312
Pat White0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams12312.60
Pat White5275.40
Brian Hartline22010.01
Kory Sheets155.00
Tyler Thigpen111.00
Chad Henne100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess56851
Anthony Fasano22410
Brian Hartline24340
Greg Camarillo34220
Ted Ginn36200
Joey Haynos1160
Ricky Williams3540
Kory Sperry0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.56