Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
46
Model margin
+1.6est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.004
- 44.8%Success rate45.9%
- +0.124EPA / dropback-0.013
- -0.083EPA / rush+0.023
- 10.2%Explosive rate7.2%
- +4.22CPOE+0.24
- 40.3%Third-down rate48.8%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 1.83Points / drive1.82
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/27 | 220 | 3 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 20 | 94 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Willie Parker | 12 | 91 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 3 | 64 | 1 |
| Hines Ward | 8 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 5 | 6 | 56 | 1 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 16/20 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 4/8 | 83 | 1 | 2 |
| Pat White | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Pat White | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Kory Sheets | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Chad Henne | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 5 | 6 | 85 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 2 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Joey Haynos | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Kory Sperry | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.93
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.56