2019 · Week 8

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

14·27

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Mason Rudolph

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

44

Model margin

+3.0est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.076EPA / play-0.136
  • 41.5%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.002EPA / dropback-0.061
  • -0.268EPA / rush-0.257
  • 6.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -2.66CPOE-1.51
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.3%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.35
  • 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PIT
MIAQ1 15:0032Punt0–0
PITQ1 14:0121Turnover0–0
MIAQ1 12:55426Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 10:55938Turnover on downs7–0
MIAQ1 7:341168Touchdown14–0
PITQ1 1:34815Punt14–0
MIAQ2 12:11529Punt14–0
PITQ2 9:051170Field goal14–3
MIAQ2 2:45410Turnover14–3
PITQ2 1:13765Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 0:1700End of half14–10
PITQ3 15:00739Missed field goal14–10
MIAQ3 11:2330Turnover14–10
PITQ3 11:0313107Touchdown14–17
MIAQ3 3:16622Turnover on downs14–17
PITQ3 0:18743Touchdown14–24
MIAQ4 12:01639Turnover14–24
PITQ4 9:0648Punt14–24
MIAQ4 7:231-6Turnover14–24
PITQ4 7:133-1Field goal14–27
MIAQ4 5:32840Turnover on downs14–27
PITQ4 2:5739Punt14–27
MIAQ4 1:5051End of half14–27

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3419022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Walton11353.20
Ryan Fitzpatrick5173.40
Kalen Ballage382.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeVante Parker68590
Preston Williams47420
Jakeem Grant23320
Mark Walton36190
Allen Hurns11121
Kalen Ballage11110
Mike Gesicki23100
Albert Wilson1251
Nick O'Leary0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mason Rudolph20/3625121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner231456.31
Benny Snell5132.60
Trey Edmunds100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster591031
Diontae Johnson57841
James Washington16210
Vance McDonald34190
Nick Vannett12150
James Conner3450
Donte Moncrief0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.95