Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
44
Model margin
+3.0est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.076EPA / play-0.136
- 41.5%Success rate38.5%
- +0.002EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.268EPA / rush-0.257
- 6.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -2.66CPOE-1.51
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.3%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate50.2%
- 1.62Points / drive1.35
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/34 | 190 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Walton | 11 | 35 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Kalen Ballage | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVante Parker | 6 | 8 | 59 | 0 |
| Preston Williams | 4 | 7 | 42 | 0 |
| Jakeem Grant | 2 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mark Walton | 3 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Kalen Ballage | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 1 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Nick O'Leary | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Rudolph | 20/36 | 251 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 23 | 145 | 6.3 | 1 |
| Benny Snell | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Trey Edmunds | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 5 | 9 | 103 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| James Washington | 1 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| James Conner | 3 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.65
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.95