2016 · Week 6

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

15·30

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PIT -7.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.004
  • 46.0%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback+0.062
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.092
  • 10.8%Explosive rate10.4%
  • +1.74CPOE+4.52
  • 41.9%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 64.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
  • 2.24Points / drive1.80
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIA
PITQ1 15:00514Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:13853Field goal0–3
PITQ1 8:34214Touchdown0–3
PITQ1 7:1913Touchdown0–3
PITQ1 6:572-7Touchdown6–3
PITQ1 5:52160Touchdown8–3
MIAQ1 5:3931Punt8–3
PITQ1 4:48831Punt8–3
MIAQ1 0:261295Field goal8–6
PITQ2 8:1810Turnover8–6
MIAQ2 8:06411Field goal8–9
PITQ2 5:23426Punt8–9
MIAQ2 2:47971Touchdown8–16
PITQ2 0:2100End of half8–16
MIAQ3 15:001054Missed field goal8–16
PITQ3 9:01836Turnover8–16
MIAQ3 5:10652Touchdown8–23
PITQ3 1:3935Punt8–23
MIAQ3 0:26521Missed field goal8–23
PITQ4 12:10410Punt8–23
MIAQ4 11:011155Punt8–23
PITQ4 4:201097Touchdown15–23
MIAQ4 1:02162Touchdown15–30
PITQ4 0:5049Turnover on downs15–30
MIAQ4 0:0400End of half15–30

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/3418912
Landry Jones0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrius Heyward-Bey16060.01
Le'Veon Bell10535.30
DeAngelo Williams3103.30
Antonio Brown166.00
Landry Jones1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Le'Veon Bell67550
Antonio Brown48390
Cobi Hamilton22361
Eli Rogers45350
Jesse James23130
Xavier Grimble13110
David Johnson0100
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200
Sammie Coates0400

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill24/3225200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi252048.22
Damien Williams6122.01
Arian Foster331.00
Ryan Tannehill231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jarvis Landry79910
MarQueis Gray33810
DeVante Parker57280
Arian Foster22120
Kenny Stills23120
Dion Sims12120
Dominique Jones1280
Damien Williams2250
Jay Ajayi1230

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

4.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.14