Closing spread
PIT -7.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.004
- 46.0%Success rate42.2%
- +0.164EPA / dropback+0.062
- -0.043EPA / rush-0.092
- 10.8%Explosive rate10.4%
- +1.74CPOE+4.52
- 41.9%Third-down rate37.0%
- 64.0%Red-zone TD rate68.3%
- 2.24Points / drive1.80
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/34 | 189 | 1 | 2 |
| Landry Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 60 | 60.0 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 53 | 5.3 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Cobi Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 36 | 1 |
| Eli Rogers | 4 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Grimble | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Coates | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 24/32 | 252 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 25 | 204 | 8.2 | 2 |
| Damien Williams | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 7 | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| MarQueis Gray | 3 | 3 | 81 | 0 |
| DeVante Parker | 5 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dominique Jones | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
4.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.14