Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.001
- 41.1%Success rate42.4%
- +0.009EPA / dropback+0.096
- -0.138EPA / rush-0.173
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
- -0.18CPOE+3.30
- 35.5%Third-down rate37.6%
- 59.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
- 1.51Points / drive1.82
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 20/33 | 200 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Thomas | 16 | 105 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 56 | 18.7 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 7 | 10 | 97 | 2 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Marcus Thigpen | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/39 | 349 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 15 | 61 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Dwyer | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 9 | 138 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 5 | 9 | 57 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 4 | 56 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+4.59