2013 · Week 14

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

34·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

+4.6est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.001
  • 41.1%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.009EPA / dropback+0.096
  • -0.138EPA / rush-0.173
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.3%
  • -0.18CPOE+3.30
  • 35.5%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 59.1%Red-zone TD rate61.8%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.82
  • 2.6%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PIT
PITQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:523-6Punt0–0
PITQ1 11:251274Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 4:20764Field goal3–7
PITQ1 0:4034Punt3–7
MIAQ2 14:43510Punt3–7
PITQ2 12:1835Turnover3–7
MIAQ2 10:44531Touchdown10–7
PITQ2 8:15724Punt10–7
MIAQ2 4:42514Punt10–7
PITQ2 2:2137Punt10–7
MIAQ2 0:3938Missed field goal10–7
MIAQ3 15:00976Touchdown17–7
PITQ3 10:50483Touchdown17–14
MIAQ3 8:582-2Opp touchdown17–21
MIAQ3 8:05771Touchdown24–21
PITQ3 4:521288Touchdown24–28
MIAQ4 14:56613Punt24–28
PITQ4 11:55618Punt24–28
MIAQ4 9:3538Punt24–28
PITQ4 7:51525Punt24–28
MIAQ4 4:31480Touchdown31–28
PITQ4 2:5348Turnover on downs31–28
MIAQ4 2:2330Field goal34–28
PITQ4 1:08468End of half34–28

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill20/3320031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Daniel Thomas161056.61
Ryan Tannehill35618.70
Lamar Miller6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay710972
Brian Hartline58511
Mike Wallace25190
Lamar Miller24130
Dion Sims1270
Rishard Matthews1250
Marcus Thigpen1140
Daniel Thomas1140

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3934930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell15614.10
Ben Roethlisberger188.00
Jonathan Dwyer382.70
Felix Jones273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown591381
Emmanuel Sanders46651
Jerricho Cotchery59571
Heath Miller34560
Le'Veon Bell59190
Will Johnson1190
Markus Wheaton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.3%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+4.59