Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.071
- 40.3%Success rate41.7%
- +0.166EPA / dropback-0.016
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.155
- 10.5%Explosive rate7.1%
- +3.44CPOE-1.81
- 44.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.89Points / drive1.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/27 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 15 | 37 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hines Ward | 7 | 10 | 131 | 1 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 4 | 53 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 23/36 | 257 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 11 | 48 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davone Bess | 6 | 7 | 66 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 5 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 3 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Roberto Wallace | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricky Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.46%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.20