2010 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

23·22

Dolphins

Miami

QB Chad Henne

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

40.5

Model margin

-1.2est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.071
  • 40.3%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback-0.016
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.155
  • 10.5%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +3.44CPOE-1.81
  • 44.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.34
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIA
PITQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
MIAQ1 14:5331Field goal0–3
PITQ1 14:023-7Turnover0–3
MIAQ1 13:0838Field goal0–6
PITQ1 11:15423Punt0–6
MIAQ1 8:413-2Punt0–6
PITQ1 7:3414102Field goal3–6
MIAQ2 14:14319Turnover3–6
PITQ2 12:55534Touchdown10–6
MIAQ2 11:111069Field goal10–9
PITQ2 6:03153Touchdown17–9
MIAQ2 5:47980Touchdown17–16
PITQ2 1:50421End of half17–16
MIAQ3 15:00611Punt17–16
PITQ3 11:04951Field goal20–16
MIAQ3 5:32962Field goal20–19
PITQ3 1:0836Punt20–19
MIAQ4 14:3939Punt20–19
PITQ4 12:30624Punt20–19
MIAQ4 8:44652Field goal20–22
PITQ4 5:17743Field goal23–22
MIAQ4 2:2644Turnover on downs23–22
PITQ4 1:2600End of half23–22

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger19/2730220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall15372.50
Mewelde Moore4112.80
Isaac Redman393.00
Ben Roethlisberger510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hines Ward7101311
Mike Wallace24531
Mewelde Moore44480
Heath Miller33330
Emmanuel Sanders11180
Antwaan Randle El13130
Rashard Mendenhall1160
Matt Spaeth0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne23/3625710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ricky Williams11484.40
Ronnie Brown9141.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davone Bess67661
Brandon Marshall59570
Brian Hartline55570
Anthony Fasano35490
Ronnie Brown24200
Roberto Wallace1160
Ricky Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.46%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.8%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.20