2025 · Week 15

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

15·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Aaron Rodgers

Acrisure Stadium · outdoors · grass · 17°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapSteelers
  • -0.021EPA / play+0.027
  • 42.1%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.016EPA / dropback+0.046
  • -0.028EPA / rush-0.001
  • 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +1.82CPOE+0.58
  • 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 63.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.92Points / drive2.11
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7PIT @ MIA10–16MIA
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–PIT
MIAQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
PITQ1 12:3739Punt0–0
MIAQ1 10:14431Turnover0–0
PITQ1 7:541339Punt0–0
MIAQ2 14:52519Punt0–0
PITQ2 11:04410Punt0–0
MIAQ2 8:35633Field goal3–0
PITQ2 5:111358Touchdown3–7
MIAQ2 0:1717End of half3–7
PITQ3 15:00671Touchdown3–14
MIAQ3 11:203-8Punt3–14
PITQ3 9:061172Touchdown3–21
MIAQ3 4:583-12Punt3–21
PITQ3 3:121071Touchdown3–28
MIAQ4 13:01665Touchdown9–28
PITQ4 9:4139Punt9–28
MIAQ4 7:23986Touchdown15–28
PITQ4 2:323-3Punt15–28
MIAQ4 2:04741End of half15–28

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa22/2825321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
De'Von Achane12605.00
Jaylen Wright122.00
Tua Tagovailoa111.00
Ollie Gordon II200.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
De'Von Achane66670
Darren Waller78662
Greg Dulcich22460
Jaylen Waddle24260
Julian Hill22250
Malik Washington11100
Jaylen Wright1190
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers23/2722420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kenny Gainwell13806.20
Jaylen Warren12332.80
Jonnu Smith11414.01
Kaleb Johnson242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DK Metcalf33551
Kenny Gainwell77460
Pat Freiermuth35450
Darnell Washington34250
Marquez Valdes-Scantling11191
Jaylen Warren33150
Jonnu Smith22120
Adam Thielen1170
Calvin Austin III0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.4%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.73