Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.021EPA / play+0.027
- 42.1%Success rate44.1%
- -0.016EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.028EPA / rush-0.001
- 10.1%Explosive rate8.3%
- +1.82CPOE+0.58
- 34.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 63.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.92Points / drive2.11
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. PIT are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 22/28 | 253 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ollie Gordon II | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Von Achane | 6 | 6 | 67 | 0 |
| Darren Waller | 7 | 8 | 66 | 2 |
| Greg Dulcich | 2 | 2 | 46 | 0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Julian Hill | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Malik Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jaylen Wright | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 23/27 | 224 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Gainwell | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 1 |
| Kaleb Johnson | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 3 | 3 | 55 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 7 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 1 | 1 | 19 | 1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.4%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.03
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.73