Closing spread
MIA -7.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.7est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.012EPA / play+0.054
- 45.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.016EPA / dropback+0.111
- +0.006EPA / rush-0.050
- 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
- +1.33CPOE+0.08
- 43.5%Third-down rate37.6%
- 55.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
- 1.65Points / drive2.11
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 8–3 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 32/44 | 257 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 17 | 65 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pat Freiermuth | 8 | 9 | 75 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 6 | 6 | 61 | 1 |
| Diontae Johnson | 5 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 5 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Najee Harris | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Gentry | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tua Tagovailoa | 21/35 | 261 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 16 | 79 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 17 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Tua Tagovailoa | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Waddle | 4 | 5 | 88 | 0 |
| Tyreek Hill | 7 | 13 | 72 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 3 | 3 | 44 | 0 |
| Raheem Mostert | 4 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Mike Gesicki | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.74