2022 · Week 7

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

10·16

Dolphins

Miami

QB Tua Tagovailoa

Hard Rock Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

MIA -7.5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.7est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapDolphins
  • +0.012EPA / play+0.054
  • 45.1%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.016EPA / dropback+0.111
  • +0.006EPA / rush-0.050
  • 7.9%Explosive rate10.1%
  • +1.33CPOE+0.08
  • 43.5%Third-down rate37.6%
  • 55.1%Red-zone TD rate66.9%
  • 1.65Points / drive2.11
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 8–3 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. MIA are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15MIA @ PIT15–28PIT
2019 · W8MIA @ PIT14–27PIT
2016 · playoffsMIA @ PIT12–30PIT
2016 · W6PIT @ MIA15–30MIA
2013 · W14MIA @ PIT34–28MIA
2010 · W7PIT @ MIA23–22PIT
2009 · W17PIT @ MIA30–24PIT
2007 · W12MIA @ PIT0–3PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00976Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 10:4537Punt0–7
MIAQ1 9:31759Field goal0–10
PITQ1 5:3226Turnover0–10
MIAQ1 4:39630Field goal0–13
PITQ1 2:271148Field goal3–13
MIAQ2 11:44615Punt3–13
PITQ2 9:191496Touchdown10–13
MIAQ2 1:50766Field goal10–16
PITQ2 0:0200End of half10–16
PITQ3 15:003-2Punt10–16
MIAQ3 12:48858Turnover on downs10–16
PITQ3 8:37521Punt10–16
MIAQ3 6:1833Punt10–16
PITQ3 4:48510Punt10–16
MIAQ3 1:5739Punt10–16
PITQ3 0:37425Punt10–16
MIAQ4 13:54422Punt10–16
PITQ4 11:5336Punt10–16
MIAQ4 10:15528Punt10–16
PITQ4 7:561562Turnover10–16
MIAQ4 2:5737Punt10–16
PITQ4 2:31962Turnover10–16
MIAQ4 0:1800End of half10–16

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett32/4425713

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris17653.80
Kenny Pickett3206.70
Jaylen Warren273.50
Diontae Johnson133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pat Freiermuth89750
George Pickens66611
Diontae Johnson510420
Chase Claypool58410
Jaylen Warren22170
Najee Harris34150
Zach Gentry2200

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tua Tagovailoa21/3526110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Raheem Mostert16794.90
Chase Edmonds7172.40
Tua Tagovailoa4153.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jaylen Waddle45880
Tyreek Hill713720
Trent Sherfield33440
Raheem Mostert45301
Mike Gesicki37270
Chase Edmonds0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.0%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.97
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.74