2006 · Week 1

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brad Johnson

19·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Mark Brunell

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

35.5

Model margin

+2.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.151EPA / play-0.006
  • 39.3%Success rate40.9%
  • -0.174EPA / dropback+0.034
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.052
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
  • +1.13CPOE-2.46
  • 33.2%Third-down rate38.5%
  • 45.1%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
  • 0.99Points / drive1.58
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson16/3022310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chester Taylor31882.81
Brad Johnson1-1-1.00
Mewelde Moore2-1-0.50

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell17/2816300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Clinton Portis10393.91
Santana Moss3289.30
Ladell Betts8222.80
Mark Brunell273.50
Antwaan Randle El273.50

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96