2025 · Week 14

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Marcus Mariota

0·31

Vikings

Minnesota

QB J.J. McCarthy

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

WAS -1.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+4.1est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapVikings
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.094
  • 46.4%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.084EPA / dropback-0.115
  • -0.039EPA / rush-0.062
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +0.67CPOE-2.84
  • 37.2%Third-down rate32.4%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 2.03Points / drive1.75
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2013 · W10WAS @ MIN27–34MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIN
MINQ1 15:00761Touchdown0–7
WASQ1 11:031693Turnover on downs0–7
MINQ1 2:421998Touchdown0–14
WASQ2 5:4139Punt0–14
MINQ2 4:1868Punt0–14
WASQ2 1:45612Punt0–14
MINQ2 0:1700End of half0–14
WASQ3 15:001439Turnover0–14
MINQ3 8:1643Field goal0–17
WASQ3 7:01417Turnover0–17
MINQ3 4:57437Touchdown0–24
WASQ3 2:533-9Punt0–24
MINQ3 1:181057Touchdown0–31
WASQ4 11:26645Turnover0–31
MINQ4 7:531053End of half0–31

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jayden Daniels9/207801
Marcus Mariota2/43001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Rodriguez Jr.10525.20
Jacory Croskey-Merritt7324.60
Jayden Daniels4164.00
Marcus Mariota273.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terry McLaurin36410
Deebo Samuel Sr.46270
Noah Brown12190
Zach Ertz12110
Ben Sinnott1180
Jeremy McNichols1120
Treylon Burks0100
Colson Yankoff0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy16/2316330

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Jones14765.40
Jordan Mason11524.71
J.J. McCarthy6193.20
Zavier Scott3155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Addison47620
Jalen Nailor33300
Josh Oliver22242
T.J. Hockenson23121
Justin Jefferson24110
Tai Felton11100
Ben Sims1190
Zavier Scott1150
Aaron Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.03%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.1%

Expected total

44.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.11