2025 · Week 14
Final
U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
WAS -1.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.1est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.094
- 46.4%Success rate43.3%
- +0.084EPA / dropback-0.115
- -0.039EPA / rush-0.062
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +0.67CPOE-2.84
- 37.2%Third-down rate32.4%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.03Points / drive1.75
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 9/20 | 78 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2/4 | 30 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jayden Daniels | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry McLaurin | 3 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Ben Sinnott | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Colson Yankoff | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | 16/23 | 163 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones | 14 | 76 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 11 | 52 | 4.7 | 1 |
| J.J. McCarthy | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Addison | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Josh Oliver | 2 | 2 | 24 | 2 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 2 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Tai Felton | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ben Sims | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Zavier Scott | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Aaron Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.1%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.11