2013 · Week 10

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

27·34

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Christian Ponder

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

WAS -1

Total

48

Model margin

+1.4est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapVikings
  • -0.058EPA / play-0.017
  • 42.2%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.026
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.002
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.2%
  • -3.92CPOE-2.09
  • 40.7%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.37Points / drive1.75
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–4 since 1999

MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14WAS @ MIN0–31MIN
2022 · W9MIN @ WAS20–17MIN
2019 · W8WAS @ MIN9–19MIN
2017 · W10MIN @ WAS38–30MIN
2016 · W10MIN @ WAS20–26WAS
2014 · W9WAS @ MIN26–29MIN
2012 · W6MIN @ WAS26–38WAS
2011 · W16MIN @ WAS33–26MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–MIN
MINQ1 15:0046Turnover0–0
WASQ1 13:091143Field goal3–0
MINQ1 8:16650Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 5:10778Touchdown10–7
MINQ1 1:17865Touchdown10–14
WASQ2 12:591385Touchdown17–14
MINQ2 5:0233Punt17–14
WASQ2 4:071082Touchdown24–14
MINQ2 0:1000End of half24–14
WASQ3 15:001159Field goal27–14
MINQ3 9:22974Touchdown27–21
WASQ3 4:3237Punt27–21
MINQ3 2:57541Touchdown27–28
WASQ3 0:5767Punt27–28
MINQ4 12:32630Field goal27–31
WASQ4 9:543-4Punt27–31
MINQ4 8:23940Field goal27–34
WASQ4 3:361476Turnover on downs27–34
MINQ4 0:2400End of half27–34

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III24/3728130

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris261395.30
Robert Griffin III7446.30
Roy Helu284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Pierre Garcon7101191
Jordan Reed69621
Leonard Hankerson55610
Roy Helu34230
Santana Moss12130
Logan Paulsen2331
Josh Morgan0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Christian Ponder17/2117421
Matt Cassel4/64700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson20753.82
Christian Ponder2136.50
Toby Gerhart144.00
Matt Cassel1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Carlson77981
Jerome Simpson46450
Jarius Wright23340
Cordarrelle Patterson24221
Greg Jennings34180
Adrian Peterson2220
Chase Ford1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.8%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.96
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.40