2013 · Week 10
Final
Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
WAS -1
Total
48
Model margin
+1.4est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.058EPA / play-0.017
- 42.2%Success rate41.4%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.002
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.2%
- -3.92CPOE-2.09
- 40.7%Third-down rate36.4%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.37Points / drive1.75
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–4 since 1999
MIN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 46.6 points. MIN are 7-5-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 24/37 | 281 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 26 | 139 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 7 | 44 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 10 | 119 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 6 | 9 | 62 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 5 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Ponder | 17/21 | 174 | 2 | 1 |
| Matt Cassel | 4/6 | 47 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 20 | 75 | 3.8 | 2 |
| Christian Ponder | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson | 7 | 7 | 98 | 1 |
| Jerome Simpson | 4 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.96
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.40